Hurricane Polo Map: A Category 5 Skirts Mexico’s Pacific Coast While Hawaii Braces for Nolo

The eastern Pacific produced a monster this week. Hurricane Polo exploded from a tropical storm into a Category 5 hurricane in roughly 24 hours, briefly peaking near 180 mph (285 km/h), and ran west past Mexico’s southwestern coast without making landfall there.

The gamble half paid off. Polo’s catastrophic core stayed over water and the southwestern coast was spared a direct hit, with damage limited to five beach enramadas and nine homes in Michoacán.

The rain was another matter. Polo’s outer bands killed four members of one family in Talpa de Allende, Jalisco: the mother and two children aged 3 and 12 were found first, and the father’s body was recovered later, about 20 km downstream in Tomatlán.

It could easily have gone differently. The coastline behind Acapulco and Zihuatanejo rises almost straight out of the sea, and tropical rain falling on those slopes is how Mexico’s Pacific coast gets its deadliest disasters.

Now it is over. Polo came ashore in Baja California Sur as a Category 2 late Monday, hit Sonora near Las Guásimas as a Category 1 on Tuesday morning, and dissipated inland that night.

Hurricane Nolo, meanwhile, cleared Hawaii, exploded to 155 mph (250 km/h), then unwound under shear and rebuilt into a Category 3.

It crossed the International Date Line on Sunday at 115 mph (185 km/h). Nolo is a typhoon now, a western Pacific storm with no land in its forecast path.

A third storm has taken over the Mexican side. Hurricane Rachel reached Category 3 south of Baja California Sur, then flooded Los Cabos from several hundred miles offshore.

It rebuilt to Category 2, then came apart, and crossed the coast of northern Baja California as a post-tropical cyclone just after midnight on Sunday, under Tropical Storm Warnings on both Baja coasts.

From Category 5 to Two Mexican Landfalls

The National Hurricane Center’s 11:00 PM MST intermediate advisory on Monday carried the landfall itself: Polo came ashore with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph (175 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 965 mb, a Category 2.

Mexican authorities measured gusts to 205 km/h (127 mph). The eye had been filling on satellite for hours before the coast, and forecasters flagged the 100-knot pre-landfall estimate as possibly generous.

The center crossed the coast near Las Barrancas, in Comondú, about 80 miles (130 km) north of Cabo San Lazaro, then tracked northeast at 13 mph (20 km/h) across the peninsula. That earlier westward jog is what spared Guerrero: the core ran out to sea instead of up the coastline.

The core did what the forecast said: across Baja California Sur overnight, then inland over southern Sonora on Tuesday morning. Hurricane-force winds extended about 40 miles (65 km) from the center at that point; tropical-storm-force winds reached 105 miles (165 km).

Polo passed briefly over the Gulf of California and was still a Category 1 hurricane when it reached Sonora, exactly as the NHC had it.

The warnings kept widening to the end. The Hurricane Warning ran from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe on the west coast and from Loreto all the way to Bahia San Juan Bautista on the Gulf of California side, with Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings beyond each end. All of it has since been discontinued.

The mainland is in it now too. Mexico upgraded its watch to a Hurricane Warning from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito in Sonora with Advisory 30A, and a watch runs south from there to Topolobampo in Sinaloa.

Polo has already passed Socorro Island in the Revillagigedo archipelago. It has no civilian population, only a Mexican Navy station, and naval personnel reported no structural damage to the Socorro naval sector.

From Tropical Storm to Category 5 in a Day

Polo’s intensification was violent even by 2026 standards. NHC best-track data shows it at tropical-storm strength (40 kt) roughly a day before it hit Category 5 (140 kt), briefly touching 155 kt, about 180 mph. On the track map above, that’s the tight loop where the line jumps from blue to purple.

The numbers behind that jump are historic. A NOAA reconnaissance plane measured a central pressure of 892 mb on Tuesday, the second-lowest ever recorded in the eastern Pacific, behind only Hurricane Patricia’s 872 mb in 2015.

A second NOAA research flight on Friday afternoon found the pressure had dipped again, to 911 mb. Its highest flight-level winds were 154 knots, and an experimental instrument clocked about 155 knots (80 m/s) just 25 meters above the sea.

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter on Saturday evening measured the decline: 114-knot flight-level winds and a 949 mb dropsonde pressure, setting the intensity at 105 knots. The crew found the inner core had expanded and the eyewall was open on its north side.

Only nine of the roughly 1,088 hurricanes logged in the basin since 1950 have dropped below 900 mb. Polo’s 180 mph peak winds rank third on record here, tied with Hurricane Rick in 2009 and behind Patricia and Linda (1997).

The NHC called the intensification “truly remarkable.” Winds climbed from 45 mph early Monday to 150 mph by Tuesday morning, far beyond the 35 mph in 24 hours that defines rapid intensification.

The fuel is no mystery. El Niño conditions have left the eastern Pacific running warmer than normal, and forecasters have pointed to exactly this pattern to explain a hyperactive Pacific season, from Hawaii’s repeated storm threats to monsters like Polo. Warm water deep below the surface means a storm can churn without cooling its own engine, and slow-moving storms like Polo normally do exactly that.

The Rain Is the Real Danger

Guerrero took its rain on Wednesday and Thursday: 4 to 6 inches (100-150 mm), with isolated totals near 8 inches (200 mm). That threat has now moved northwest with the storm.

Advisory 18 forecast an additional 2 to 4 inches (50-100 mm) across coastal Michoacán, Colima, northern and southern Jalisco, and Nayarit, with another 1 to 2 inches for central Jalisco and Guerrero. Conagua put the intense band at 75 to 150 mm for the same states on Friday.

Those numbers sound modest next to Hawaii’s forecast below, but geography multiplies them. The Sierra Madre del Sur rises to over 3,000 meters within about 100 km of the shoreline.

Rain that falls on those slopes doesn’t spread out; it funnels into steep canyons and arrives in towns as flash floods and debris flows. Advisory 30A repeats the same warning, “life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain,” now for Baja California Sur.

This is the same physical-geography trap that made Hurricane Otis so deadly in Acapulco in 2023 and that turns even offshore storms into killers here. Swells from Polo will also pound the coast for days, spreading north to Baja California Sur by the weekend with dangerous surf and rip currents.

Polo’s Rain Turns Deadly in Jalisco

It stopped being a no-casualty storm on Saturday night. A flash flood on the Rio Santa Elena tore through the La Cuesta community in Talpa de Allende, Jalisco, sweeping away a family of four.

Two children, aged 3 and 12, were found dead less than a kilometre from their home on Sunday, and their mother’s body was recovered the same day. Their father was found on Tuesday, which makes the whole family of four.

The father was found on Tuesday. A helicopter overflight spotted his body along the riverbed, after the search had been widened roughly 20 km downstream toward the Soyatán community, and bad weather in the Sierra Occidental held up the extraction.

Governor Pablo Lemus confirmed the recovery himself. That closes the family and puts Polo’s confirmed death toll in Jalisco at four.

One child lived. An 11-year-old brother, who is hearing impaired, was staying with his aunts and grandmother when the house went, and Lemus said he has asked the state DIF to support the boy and his relatives.

The Talpa count has firmed up at 15 homes affected, five of them destroyed outright, including this family’s. Two bridges were hit, and landslides cut state highway 555 between Talpa de Allende and Tomatlán around kilometres 23 to 25.

The municipality has asked for help formally. Mayor Patricia Sánchez Moro requested a state emergency declaration at the State Emergency Council session in Puerto Vallarta, citing road damage alongside the housing losses.

Her figures did not match the governor’s. Talpa’s request counted 17 homes affected with three total losses, against Governor Lemus’s 15 affected and five destroyed, and was filed while one of the four victims was still listed as missing.

State civil protection has since settled on 17 affected with five written off. Sergio Ramírez López, who heads Jalisco’s civil protection and fire department, breaks it down as eight homes with damage to contents only and three with significant structural damage.

Those five are not going back where they stood. Ramírez López said the total losses cannot be sited in that zone again, and the state is convening the technical committee of its natural disaster fund, FOEDEN, to look at support for the families.

A third person is still missing on the coast. Carmen Alvarado, 24, from San Luis Potosí, was swept out by heavy surf at Playa de Oro in Puerto Vallarta as Polo’s swells reached the bay, and her twin sister Paola was rescued.

The search for her has been scaled back. Puerto Vallarta’s lifeguards ended the fixed operation on Wednesday evening after roughly 96 hours, removing the surveillance post, and her family held a private farewell on the beach.

The alert has not been withdrawn. Lifeguards say they will stay watchful on routine beach patrols for any sign that helps locate her.

Now the Rain Heads for Baja California Sur

Advisory 34A raises it again, to 6 to 12 inches (150-300 mm) of rain across parts of Baja California Sur, falling through Tuesday with life-threatening flooding and mudslides on steep terrain.

That is a lot of water for a desert peninsula with thin soils and dry arroyos that fill in minutes. A storm surge is also possible where the winds blow onshore, and Polo’s swells are already spreading north.

Polo’s Second Landfall in Sonora

Polo got its second act. It came ashore near Las Guásimas, in Guaymas municipality, around 9:00 AM Tuesday as a Category 1 with 75 mph (120 km/h) winds, and was down to a tropical storm by mid-afternoon.

Mexican forecasters had put the second impact near 6:00 AM Tuesday as a Category 1, with 150 to 250 mm of rain, a 1.5 to 2.5 m storm surge and waves of 8 to 10 m on the Sonora coast. It arrived about three hours later, at the intensity they called.

The NHC rainfall figure for Sonora is 4 to 6 inches (100-150 mm) with maximum totals near 8 inches (200 mm). The state has readied 144 temporary shelters, including 15 in Empalme, 8 in Hermosillo and 4 in Guaymas.

Classes are off across Sonora. Afternoon sessions were suspended in 25 municipalities on Monday, September 28, then all shifts and all levels in all 72 municipalities on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Empalme activated three shelters ahead of the landfall, taking in 16 people at the Cobach and 26 at the primary school in the Morelos La Aravezada settlement. Empalme and Guaymas suspended economic activity as well as classes.

The SMN forecasts 150 to 250 mm of rain for parts of Baja California Sur and Sonora between September 26 and 29, with 75 to 150 mm for Sinaloa, Chihuahua and Durango. Tuesday winds on the Sonora coast are put at 120 to 130 km/h, gusting 150 to 170.

Waves of 4 to 6 m were expected off Sonora, Sinaloa and Baja California Sur. Sinaloa forecasters called Monday and Tuesday the critical days there.

What Polo Did in Guaymas and Empalme

The water beat the wind. Storm surge came over the malecón at Guaymas and pushed into the city centre and Avenida Aquiles Serdán, and the Navy’s RN-2 station logged 371.4 mm (14.6 in) of rain by 11:25 AM.

Guaymas gusted to 104 km/h (65 mph). Empalme recorded 97.2 mm (3.8 in) of rain and 100 km/h (62 mph) winds, with flood alerts running for its Bellavista and Pesqueira neighbourhoods.

Guaymas’ preliminary count: 11 utility poles down, four damaged transformers, four trees down, eight stranded vehicles, three homes with roof damage and one house fire. Vehicles were carried along flooded streets, and poles falling in Las Villas cut power there.

Ciudad Obregón lost water, not just power. Outages knocked out drinking-water plants 1 and 2 in Cajeme, cutting supply to the city’s central and northern zones.

Evacuations were local but real. About 140 people were moved out around Guaymas, roughly 45 families at the Mi Patria es Primero ejido in Empalme and another 50 at La Atravesada, and 196 people ended up in shelters.

Governor Alfonso Durazo reported a saldo blanco, no deaths or serious injuries, attended the C5 command centre in Guaymas, and cleared economic activity to resume in the municipalities that had been on maximum preventive alert.

That balance held on the coast, not in the sierra. Antonio Encinas Ortega, 66, the father of Soyopa’s mayor Paulette Encinas Miranda, drowned on September 29 when a flash flood from Polo’s rains swept his pickup into Arroyo Hondo.

His wife Martina, 64, was pulled out alive with cuts and bruises. Hermosillo firefighters with water-rescue training recovered his body around 9:00 AM the next morning, about the time Polo was dissipating inland.

Sonora Declares an Emergency in 13 Municipalities

The coastal saldo blanco held. The damage count did not stay small: Sonora declared a state of emergency covering 13 municipalities, 29,230 people directly affected and more than 8,152 damaged homes, published in the state’s Boletín Oficial on October 1.

The housing damage is not where the landfall was. Navojoa alone accounts for 4,900 damaged homes, against 810 in Empalme, all of them inland or down the coast from Guaymas.

Navojoa’s count is being redone on the ground. Brigades censused 514 families across five communities there this week, documenting housing damage to work out which repairs and rebuilds get funded first.

Cajeme’s number is disputed. Uniradio Sonora reads the state count as 1,600 damaged homes there, El Imparcial as 1,800, and neither has corrected the other.

The tail is long and small. El Imparcial’s breakdown adds 180 damaged homes in Benito Juárez, 79 in Bácum, 76 in Álamos, 64 in San Ignacio Río Muerto, 60 in Rosario, and 50 or fewer in each of the rest.

The rest of the list runs Pitiquito, Huatabampo, Bácum, Etchojoa, Álamos, Quiriego, Suaqui Grande, Rosario, San Ignacio Río Muerto and Benito Juárez. Four bridges were damaged and eight road sections left impassable.

Álamos lost its water supply on top of that. The municipality’s water collector and its potable water plant both collapsed, listed in the declaration alongside the bridges and the rural roads.

Rural roads took the widest hit: more than 400 km (250 mi) of rural and dirt roads affected across Navojoa, Álamos and Rosario.

Guaymas itself took a year of rain in three days. State figures put the total at 457 mm (18 in), and the San Ramón bridge collapsed under the runoff.

Now the city wants a health emergency. Guaymas is asking the state to petition Sonora’s health secretariat over sewage from collapsed sanitary lines, with fumigation and vector control sought against the dengue risk that follows standing water.

The dengue work has already begun. Sonora’s public health secretariat reinforced vector brigades in Guaymas and Empalme from Sunday, running fumigation, larval control and entomological surveillance wherever water is still standing.

Recovery is now the whole of Polo’s story in Sonora. The state counted 6,592 personnel from municipal, state and federal agencies on Tuesday, with 984 vehicles and 171 pieces of heavy machinery in the field.

The work is unglamorous: opening access routes, clearing debris, pumping standing water, desilting, and rebuilding roads, bridges and fords, plus repairs to water, drainage and sewage networks.

The relief side has a tally now. Sonora has handed out more than 30,000 food packages, 2,450 mattresses, 1,800 water units, 900 hygiene kits and 600 cleaning kits, with roofing sheets going mainly to Navojoa and Etchojoa.

The damage count is still moving. A team of 114 people and 38 vehicles is in the field standardising the affected-population numbers and re-assessing housing damage, so 8,152 is a provisional figure.

Guaymas has its own figure now. Mayor Karla Córdova González put the port’s losses at 367 homes written off as a total loss and about 600 families affected on Saturday, October 17.

The shelters there are empty. Every family that was in one has been relocated, and the municipality has switched to handing out building materials and food parcels to households still repairing their homes.

The public works are next. Guaymas is repairing streets torn up by the runoff plus bridges on Federal Highway 15 and in the valley, with the Yaqui communities named as the priority.

Navojoa’s relief tally keeps growing. The municipal DIF has delivered 14,743 food parcels and 166,462 bottles of water, along with 1,794 roofing sheets, 1,984 mattresses and 799 reinforcement bars.

There is cash behind it as well. Affected households in Navojoa are being signed up for 7,500 pesos each, with enrolment still open, and the Navy, National Guard and Sedena are moving deliveries into the rural communities.

Polo Takes Out the Guaymas Melon Harvest

The farm loss is the new number. Polo damaged at least 1,300 hectares (3,200 acres) of watermelon and melon in the Guaymas and Empalme valleys, days before the early harvest was due to start.

Most of it was uninsured. Carlos Gaspar Iberri Tapia, who heads the northern Sonora growers’ association AOANS, says a significant share of the ruined planting carried no agricultural insurance, so the growers absorb the loss directly.

The labour side is bigger than the acreage suggests. Agustín Urías Arenas of the Alianza de Trabajadores del Campo puts it at thousands of day labourers out of work, reckoning at least six people per hectare.

The season was meant to generate about 15,000 jobs, drawing workers from Oaxaca, Guerrero, Chiapas and Michoacán as well as locally. That is the part a housing census does not capture.

Mexico Shuts Down the Coast

Guerrero suspended public and private school classes on Thursday across the Costa Grande, Acapulco, Costa Chica, Sierra and Montaña regions. Michoacán did the same in Aquila, Coahuayana, Arteaga, Tumbiscatío, Chinicuila and Coalcomán.

The navy (Semar) closed Acapulco, Puerto Marqués and Zihuatanejo to all navigation and shut smaller craft out of ports in Colima, Michoacán and Oaxaca. Plan Marina is in its prevention phase, and about 1,700 soldiers are deployed along the Michoacán coast.

Oaxaca’s civil protection agency logged 2 to 3 meter surf around Puerto Escondido and Pochutla, and President Claudia Sheinbaum said experts did not expect Polo to touch land. She was right about the mainland’s southwestern coast.

The damage tally stayed small. National Civil Protection chief Laura Velázquez reported damage to five beach enramadas at Playa Azul, in Lázaro Cárdenas, Michoacán, with no deaths or injuries.

Michoacán’s state civil protection agency counted nine affected homes there, none of them structurally damaged. Surf of more than 6 meters pushed seawater and debris into the village’s commercial strip.

About 22,500 federal and state personnel were deployed across the four coastal states. Michoacán held its school suspension across seven Sierra-Costa municipalities through Friday, and Jalisco did the same in 33 municipalities including Puerto Vallarta.

Guerrero was not damage-free. The state risk management and civil protection secretariat evacuated 14 homes at Petacalco, in La Unión, moving 30 people out first: 16 adults and 14 minors.

Another 51 residents of El Chaparral were sheltered at the Ignacio Manuel Altamirano primary school. High surf damaged homes and beach businesses in the La Chaparrada neighborhood, and a downed tree partly blocked the Acapulco to Pinotepa Nacional federal highway at Playa Ventura.

Baja California Sur Gets Ready

Baja California Sur has readied 169 temporary shelters, 111 Plan A sites and 58 Plan B sites: 50 in Mulegé, 44 in Los Cabos, 38 in La Paz, 29 in Comondú and 8 in Loreto.

The capacity figure has moved as the plan firmed up. An earlier state list put it at 24,295 people; the state now says the network can hold more than 33,000.

The suspension was extended. Classes and state, municipal and federal government work were off on Monday, September 28 and Tuesday, September 29 across all five municipalities. Los Cabos cancelled its Friday afternoon shift earlier.

Sedena and the National Guard activated Plan DN-III-E in its prevention phase on Friday, sending the Correcaminos and Castores engineer brigades with heavy machinery toward Los Cabos and Comondú and standing up a command post in Ciudad Constitución.

Governor Víctor Castro Cosío saw the deployment off from the Third Military Zone in La Paz and said food and fuel stocks are sufficient, discouraging panic buying.

Maritime activity was suspended statewide during the storm, with Cabo San Lucas, San José del Cabo and Puerto San Carlos closed to small craft. The state’s airports kept operating normally.

The state expected the worst of it in Comondú, Loreto and Mulegé, and set its command post in Comondú. Fishing communities there were told to secure boats and gear.

What the Landfall Did in Comondú

The first damage came from the water, not the wind. Storm surge broke a containment berm more than three metres high at Puerto San Carlos, in Comondú, and seawater pushed into the streets and homes behind it.

Comondú civil protection and state police moved families to higher ground. Seventy-eight people were evacuated preventively into a shelter at Ciudad Constitución, and movement was restricted across Comondú, Loreto and Mulegé during the worst of it.

Ciudad Constitución itself lost light poles and trees, with wind damage to a bank and a restaurant. Baja California Sur’s first official balance reported no major damage to housing, urban infrastructure or health facilities.

Comondú and Loreto were under red alert, with Mulegé, La Paz and Los Cabos on orange. CFE had 610 workers, 273 pickups, 159 cranes, 44 generators and two helicopters deployed across the state.

Baja California Sur got off lightly. Governor Víctor Castro reported a saldo blanco across Comondú, Loreto and Mulegé, the three municipalities in the storm’s path: no deaths and no serious injuries.

About 700 people went into the state’s shelters during the impact, and some were already heading home on Tuesday. Flooding, ponding and downed trees were the damage, with no loss of electricity service reported statewide.

Polo’s Remnants Flood the US Southwest

The storm’s reach runs well past Mexico. Tropical moisture streaming north ahead of Polo helped trigger a Flash Flood Emergency in Mora County, New Mexico, earlier this week, with flash flood warnings later reaching Las Cruces and El Paso.

That was the opening. Polo’s remnants have now soaked close to a dozen states, and forecasters say atmospheric moisture over parts of the Southwest, Texas and Oklahoma is near or above record levels for late September.

McLeod Dam, at Garfield in Doña Ana County, New Mexico, breached on Tuesday. The National Weather Service issued a Flash Flood Emergency for the Hatch Valley over the dam’s imminent failure, and water poured over and through the roughly 20-foot earthen structure.

Five communities were told to leave: Hatch, Rincon, Salem, Garfield and Placitas. Doña Ana County lifted the orders for Hatch and its neighbours late Tuesday and for Rincon, a community of about 250 people, on Wednesday afternoon.

Ruidoso evacuated its Upper Canyon over landslide risk. All northbound lanes of Interstate 25 near Hatch closed, and Chaco Culture National Historical Park shut after a road collapse on CR 7900.

The water has not drained. Rincon Road stayed flooded and closed after its evacuation order came off, and Hatch’s main gasoline line was breached, so residents were told not to pump fuel there.

Rescues ran into Wednesday. Local agencies and the New Mexico National Guard pulled a woman from her car in floodwater on N.M. 185 near mile marker 18, and Las Cruces closed La Llorona Park at noon as the Rio Grande overflowed.

Rainfall rates did the damage. Roswell took 2.5 inches (65 mm) in a single hour on Tuesday, and Clovis and Portales were hit hard again.

There is one confirmed US death. Ian Massey, a lineman for Farmers’ Electric Cooperative, was killed trying to repair a utility pole brought down by flooding in Clovis, which has taken about 10 inches (250 mm) of rain.

The water keeps moving east. Another 2 to 4 inches (50-100 mm) is forecast for the Southwest at rates up to 3 inches (75 mm) an hour, then 3 to 5 inches (75-125 mm) from Texas into Oklahoma and again from Kansas to northern Illinois.

Totals so far bear that out: Bullhead City, Arizona has recorded 3.91 inches (99 mm) and Albuquerque more than 2 inches (50 mm) between September 27 and 29.

The footprint keeps widening. Polo’s moisture has now reached Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, Colorado, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri and Illinois.

Rachel is feeding it too. Upper-level winds are carrying Rachel’s moisture north over Mexico into the southern United States, where it meets Polo’s plume and Gulf humidity along a stalled front.

Utah and Arizona took hits too. Flash flooding reached Zion National Park, the Bureau of Land Management reported significant damage to access roads, three people were rescued from Heaps Canyon in Utah and another from an overturned vehicle west of Phoenix.

Nebraska Sets an All-Time Rain Record

It is extremely rare for an eastern Pacific cyclone to matter in Nebraska. Polo managed it: Lincoln airport recorded 6.15 inches (156 mm) on September 30, its wettest calendar day in 139 years of records.

That broke a record set in 1910. The previous mark was 5.45 inches (138 mm) on August 29 of that year, and Polo beat it by a considerable margin.

Suburban Omaha did worse. Gauges logged 8.27 inches (210 mm) at Millard, 8.22 inches nearby, 8.10 inches southwest of Elkhorn and 8.00 inches at Ithaca, with 7.61 inches south of Lincoln.

Omaha itself took 4.74 inches (120 mm), its ninth-wettest day in records back to 1871. Cars were stranded across both metros, with water rescues reported in Omaha and Lincoln, including one at 14th and Nebraska Parkway.

Iowa finished the month soaked. Des Moines recorded 14.50 inches (368 mm) for September, its third-wettest month on record.

Kansas Declares a Disaster Emergency

Kansas went to a Flash Flood Emergency. The NWS issued one just south of Dodge City on Thursday afternoon as moisture wrapped around an upper-level low, with over 5 inches (125 mm) already down in places.

The state had already moved. Governor Laura Kelly issued a verbal state of disaster emergency on Wednesday to send help to the hardest-hit communities.

The damage showed up across Kansas. Vehicles were stranded in Wichita, crews ran water rescues at Dodge City, and roughly a dozen bridges were damaged in Jewell County in the north of the state.

It was not only water. Spotters reported multiple tornadoes across western Kansas, including damage near Susank.

Texas Is Next in the Plume

Texas is the current target. The Weather Prediction Center put a moderate risk, level 3 of 4, on the Interstate 35 corridor from Dallas-Fort Worth down to Austin and San Antonio.

The flood watch runs through Friday along and west of I-35, covering Dallas, Tarrant, Collin, Denton and Johnson counties, with 2 to 3 inches (50-75 mm) widespread and up to 5 inches (125 mm) locally.

The Hill Country went first. Flash flood warnings covered parts of Bandera, Gillespie, Kerr and Real counties early Thursday, then Bexar, northern Atascosa and western Wilson in the afternoon, with rates of several inches an hour reported.

The state pre-positioned for it. Texas put 1,900 responders and more than 1,500 pieces of equipment in place, Fort Worth handed out 1,500 sandbags, and Dallas staged swift-water rescue teams and activated more than 80 rain gauges.

Then the rain arrived and the roads went under. Stretches of Interstates 30 and 35E closed near Dallas-Fort Worth with vehicles stranded, homes flooded near Amarillo, and basements flooded at The Woodlands north of Houston.

Amarillo set a record out of it: 6.42 inches (163 mm) for September, its wettest September on record. Spotters also reported several tornadoes across the Texas Panhandle.

The Flood Event Winds Down

It is over. The flood event began in the Desert Southwest on Monday, September 28, was boosted by Polo’s remnant spin and moisture the next day, and ran its course on Friday, October 2.

The record list is long. Albuquerque finished September with 4.49 inches (114 mm), its wettest September on record, Amarillo hit the same mark with 6.42 inches, and Lincoln’s 6.15 inches on September 30 was its wettest day since records began in 1887.

The damage roundup runs across nine states: Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah, New Mexico, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa. Iowa reported road washouts and one person injured at Persia, and Interstate 10 flooded between Tucson and Phoenix.

Three Storms, One Ocean

Polo isn’t alone out there, though the cast has changed. Odalys is finished as a tropical cyclone: the NHC now calls it Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys and has dropped it from the active-storm feed.

It never threatened land. Its leftover moisture was pulled north with Polo’s into the southwestern United States, where the NHC flagged a heavy rain and flash flood threat into Tuesday.

A fourth system has come and gone. Nineteen-E dissipated on Thursday, 1,015 miles (1,630 km) west-southwest of Baja’s southern tip, and the NHC closed it out with Advisory 10 headlined “Nineteen-E dissipates.” It never threatened land.

The storm that mattered most this week is Nolo, now a strengthening tropical storm about 50 miles (80 km) south of French Frigate Shoals and 455 miles (730 km) west-northwest of Lihue, moving west-northwest across the monument.

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters found 71-knot flight-level winds and a 984 mb center on Thursday afternoon, enough to upgrade Nolo to a hurricane with 75 mph (120 km/h) winds. The NHC forecast now peaks it near 130 mph (215 km/h) this weekend.

Nolo kept strengthening through Friday to a Category 2 with 105 mph (165 km/h) winds and a 975 mb center, measured by Air Force Reserve dropsonde. South Point radar showed its eye contracting to about 35 nautical miles.

Then it stalled, weakened to a Category 1, and on Saturday it finally moved. Once clear of the islands it reintensified hard, peaking at 155 mph (250 km/h) early Monday, a high-end Category 4.

That peak did not hold. Shear, dry mid-level air and marginal sea surface temperatures have taken Nolo all the way down to a tropical storm with 45 mph (75 km/h) winds and a 999 mb center, moving west at 5 mph (7 km/h).

The core came apart on schedule. The CPHC says Nolo has now lost its defined centre altogether, with convection across the southern flank weakening substantially, and Honolulu and JTWC both assigned it a final Dvorak T-number of 2.5.

Objective estimates backed that up. UW-CIMSS intensity estimates ran from 27 to 42 knots, which is what dropped Nolo to 40 knots and ended its run as a hurricane.

That was the floor. Deep convection has since re-ignited close to the centre, displaced slightly northwest, and Nolo is back up to 65 mph (100 km/h) with a 990 mb core.

It is moving properly again too. Nolo nearly doubled its forward speed in six hours as high pressure shifted to its north and handed it to stronger subtropical steering flow.

That faster westward motion ended the alerts. The Hurricane Watch for Hawaii County was cancelled Saturday morning, and the Tropical Storm Warning there plus Maui County’s Tropical Storm Watch went at the 5 p.m. HST advisory.

The alert zone has simplified. The Hurricane Warning has been discontinued, and one Tropical Storm Warning now covers the monument from Nihoa west to Maro Reef, including near French Frigate Shoals.

The timing moved west with it. Tropical storm conditions were expected from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals on Wednesday, then spreading west from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef by Thursday.

That watch has become a warning. The Tropical Storm Warning now runs from French Frigate Shoals west to Lisianski Island, including Maro Reef, and Nihoa has dropped out of it as Nolo moves away.

Interests further west are on notice. The CPHC is telling anyone in the monument west of Lisianski Island to monitor Nolo, and expects tropical storm conditions to spread from Maro Reef to Lisianski on Saturday.

The waves are the land hazard. Large swells are likely to inundate low-lying atolls from French Frigate Shoals to Lisianski Island for several more days, with the centre passing just south of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands.

The turn happened, then the motion died. Nolo is tracking west but its forward speed fell to about 1 knot, wedged between strong high pressure to its northwest and an upper-level trough to its northeast.

The CPHC says it may look nearly stationary at times while that pattern holds, then accelerate west later in the week as an upper-level low over the western Pacific weakens the high.

The environment is the limiter now. Guidance has the shear backing off as Nolo moves west over warming water, but the CPHC notes it may struggle to re-intensify in the meantime, which is why the strengthening is written as gradual.

Nolo beat that forecast. It hit major-hurricane strength on Sunday and topped out at 155 mph (250 km/h) early Monday, just short of the 160 mph (260 km/h) the CPHC had penciled in.

Forecasters had called Nolo annular, a thick symmetric ring of convection around a warm eye with almost no outer rainbands, the kind of storm that decays slowly. Shear ended that: the eye is now filling on both visible and infrared imagery.

That pulled-forward forecast verified. The CPHC had Nolo down to a tropical storm by Wednesday and it got there, with hostile shear and dry mid-level air still wrapped around it.

It came back on cue. Nolo is a hurricane again with 90 mph (150 km/h) winds and a 975 mb centre, upgraded in Advisory 50A after deep convection expanded around a warming eye.

The brake has come off. The westerly to southwesterly shear that tore at Nolo for days has weakened sharply, and UW-CIMSS now puts it below 5 knots over warmer water along the forecast track.

Advisory 50A says rapid intensification is possible over the next day or so. The one limiter the CPHC names is the dry mid-level air around the storm, which could disrupt the eyewall and slow things down.

The peak is forecast a long way from Hawaii, and it has moved up and forward: 130 mph (215 km/h) by Sunday, which would make Nolo a major hurricane out near the International Date Line rather than anywhere near the islands.

It leaves the basin fast after that. The CPHC has Nolo crossing the Date Line into the western Pacific within 48 hours, calls the model spread remarkably narrow, and expects weakening from about Tuesday as shear and dry air return.

Nolo got there. It reached major hurricane strength on Saturday, 120 mph (195 km/h) at the 5:00 AM HST advisory, its second run at Category 3 or better in this event.

An eyewall replacement cycle has since chewed at the inner core. Advisory 54 sets the intensity at 115 mph (185 km/h) with a 957 mb centre, hurricane-force winds out 30 mi (45 km) and tropical-storm-force winds out 150 mi (240 km).

The alert map is finally blank. All Tropical Storm Warnings over Papahanaumokuakea came down at 5:00 PM HST Saturday, leaving the entire Hawaiian chain with nothing in effect.

Forward speed is the other change. Nolo is moving west at 20 mph (31 km/h), a world away from the 1 knot crawl earlier in the week, and the CPHC has it over the Date Line within 24 hours.

The shear comes back after that. Discussion 54 gives Nolo about 36 hours of low shear and a peak near 130 mph (215 km/h), then gradual weakening to roughly 70 mph (110 km/h) by day five as dry air intrudes.

Nolo Crosses the Date Line and Becomes a Typhoon

It got out fast. Nolo was running west at 18 mph (30 km/h) by late Saturday, strengthened back to 115 mph (185 km/h) at the 5:00 AM HST advisory on Sunday, and reached 180 degrees longitude around midday.

Advisory 57, at 11:00 AM HST Sunday, was the last one the NHC will ever issue on it: “Nolo crossing the International Dateline.” It sat at 24.2N 180.0E with a 959 mb core.

The rename is a border, not a milestone. Cyclones above 74 mph are hurricanes in the Atlantic and the central and eastern Pacific and typhoons in the northwest Pacific, so Typhoon Nolo is the same storm under different jurisdiction.

RSMC Tokyo and the JTWC have it from here. The JMA had Nolo moving west at 19 mph (30 km/h) on Monday morning Japan time, and the JTWC five-day track points it toward Japan without any model consensus that it gets there.

The JTWC has it weakening first. Nolo was running west at 17 mph (27 km/h) at 115 mph (185 km/h), and rising northerly shear off the mid-latitude jet should pull it down to a tropical storm by midweek.

Then it may come back. The JTWC has Nolo back to typhoon strength by Friday, turning poleward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge on a track that points toward Japan.

It is the season’s longest-lived cyclone. Nolo formed in the far eastern Pacific on September 13 and was still a Category 3 equivalent three weeks later, now one of three systems running at once in the western Pacific.

The last CPHC word on structure: outer rainbands had developed on the western side, so Nolo was no longer the annular storm it had been off Hawaii, and the eye had cooled to about 7 C.

The rain is done. The CPHC had put Big Island storm totals at 10 to 15 inches (250-380 mm), with isolated maximums near 20 inches (510 mm) on the eastern and southern slopes, and the bands broke up through Sunday.

What is left is surf. Nolo’s swells keep hitting south-facing shores of the main islands with life-threatening surf and rip currents for the next few days.

The island’s west side should see an inch or less. Eastern Maui storm totals are 4 to 8 inches (100-200 mm), and the CPHC says the significant storm surge threat has diminished, though coastal water levels stay elevated on the tides.

Forecasters call the flooding potential catastrophic. Hawaii’s volcanic slopes concentrate runoff the same way Guerrero’s sierra does, which is why the islands flood so violently under slow tropical rain.

Hurricane conditions never reached the Big Island. Strong, gusty winds are still possible across all of the islands through the weekend, and Kohala Mountain Road stayed shut on Saturday in winds above 60 mph (95 km/h).

The Flood Watch was extended, and a High Wind Warning went up for parts of Hawaii Island on Saturday afternoon. A High Surf Warning covers south and southeast shores, with a High Surf Advisory on east shores.

Hawaii Moves to an Emergency Footing

Governor Josh Green extended his September emergency proclamation through November 21, and on Friday President Trump approved a pre-landfall federal emergency declaration covering all four counties at a 75 percent federal cost share.

FEMA is authorized to provide emergency protective measures, limited to direct federal assistance, under Public Assistance Category B. Hirokazu Toiya is the federal coordinating officer.

Major General Stephen Logan said 232 Hawaii National Guard personnel are positioned, with authority to go to 500. Roughly 75 are on Oahu and more than 50 on Maui with five high-water vehicle teams.

Hawaii County opened four shelters on Wednesday, at Yano Hall in Captain Cook, Naalehu, Pahala and Keaau, and five more at 6 a.m. Friday. Maui County opened five shelters at noon Friday.

Nine shelters are now open on Hawaii Island, eight of them staffed by the American Red Cross: Keaau Armory, the Naalehu Elementary gym, the Robert N. Herkes Gym in Pahala, Yano Hall, Honokaa Gym, Papaaloa Park Annex, Puueo Community Center in Hilo, Kahilu Town Hall in Waimea and Ocean View Community Center.

Public schools and state and county offices are closed Friday across Hawaii Island and Maui County. Haleakala National Park closed both districts Thursday evening, and Hawaii Volcanoes National Park closed its recreational areas.

The closures widened on Friday to UH Hilo, Hawaii Community College, all Hawaii Island libraries and parks, Hele-On transit and the courts. Hawaii Volcanoes National Park then shut its backcountry entirely.

Transport took a hit too. At least 21 flights were cancelled at Hilo airport, the port of Hilo closed, the Coast Guard restricted harbor access, and Young Brothers cancelled its Honolulu to Kawaihae sailing.

What Nolo Actually Did

The Kau district in the island’s south took the worst of the rain, 6 to 8 inches. Mamalahoa Highway (Route 11) closed completely at Waiohinu between mile markers 65 and 66, with flooding and rockfall.

On Maui, a landslide blocked the Hana Highway near mile marker 13. Mamalahoa Highway reopened to all traffic on Sunday morning, but Kohala Mountain Road stayed shut on wind alone.

Power impacts did not stay small. Nolo’s east winds knocked out more than 16,000 customers across Maui and Oahu at the peak, including 12,370 in West Maui and Upcountry on Sunday afternoon.

Hawaiian Electric had restored about 10,000 West Maui customers by Monday. A Wind Advisory for Maui, Molokai, Oahu and Hawaii Island ran until 6 a.m. Monday, with gusts near 50 mph (80 km/h).

The shelter network has shrunk with the threat. The Lahaina Civic Center gym was down to 12 people by 1 p.m. Sunday, from a peak of 29, and the South Maui evacuation point closed at 3 p.m. after taking in 66.

Big Island shelters stayed open at Naalehu, Pahala and Ocean View. Most schools reopened on Monday, with four Lahaina schools still closed.

Kauai and Niihau Get the Outer Bands

Kauai got its rain, and then some. A Flash Flood Warning went up at 5:11 AM Wednesday for Hanalei, Princeville, Kapaa, Kilauea, Haena, Wailua Homesteads, Kokee and Na Pali State Park, was extended to 11:30 AM, and came off by 2 PM.

Rates hit 1 to 2 inches (25-50 mm) an hour at the peak. The Hanalei Bridge flooded and closed, Kuhio Highway beside it was down to one alternating lane by 9 AM, and Hanalei Elementary shut for the day.

The summits took the volume. About 16 inches (405 mm) had fallen over Kauai’s mountains by Thursday, against a 15-inch storm-total forecast, with another 4 to 6 inches (100-150 mm) still expected and locally near 10 inches (250 mm).

That is the first main-island rain threat since the Big Island bands broke up on Sunday. Surf is the wider hazard: Nolo’s swells now hit south- and west-facing shores of all the main islands.

Oahu is in it too, with 2 to 5 inches (50-125 mm) forecast and higher totals in the mountains. The NWS flagged nuisance flooding and ponding on roads rather than widespread flooding, because the bands kept moving.

It held. Rates of 1 to 2 inches (25-50 mm) an hour came through without any flood advisory or warning on Oahu, and the main islands had no watches or advisories left by Thursday evening.

Wind and water make up the rest. A Small Craft Advisory covers Kauai’s northwest and leeward waters, and a High Surf Advisory ran for south-facing shores of Kauai and Niihau at 7 to 10 feet (2-3 m).

And Now Hurricane Rachel

The basin is not done. Rachel peaked as a Category 3 with 120 mph (195 km/h) winds and a 950 mb core on Thursday, and it has been easing off since.

Then it rebuilt. Rachel climbed back to a Category 2 with 105 mph (165 km/h) winds and a 965 mb core on Sunday morning, holding that through the afternoon.

It dipped, then came back. Discussion 52 had Rachel at 45 mph (70 km/h), and Intermediate Advisory 52A three hours later put it back at 60 mph (95 km/h) with a 990 mb core, about 670 miles (1,080 km) south-southwest of San Diego.

The motion is the real change. Rachel is accelerating northeast at 12 mph (19 km/h), and the NHC expects a significant further increase in forward speed, bringing the centre toward northern Baja California or Southern California late Saturday or early Sunday.

That eye has filled back in. Discussion 32 says the satellite presentation degraded through Sunday and the inner core appears to have come apart.

Water vapour imagery shows dry air has worked into the centre. The NHC set the intensity at 85 knots off a blend of TAFB and UW-CIMSS estimates and flagged even that as possibly generous.

The annular read did not hold, and neither did the re-intensification window. The weakening then arrived on schedule.

Discussion 36 has the eye filling in again and the deep convection gone asymmetric on infrared, with gradual weakening continuing as Rachel crosses into drier air and cooler sea surface temperatures.

The wind field has lost its hurricane core. Advisory 48 carries no hurricane-force winds at all, with tropical-storm-force winds in to 90 miles (150 km) from 125 miles.

Rachel is still crawling, west-northwest at 6 mph (9 km/h). Discussion 40 has high pressure over the western United States steering it for a couple more days, then a large mid to upper-level trough arriving from the northwest, slowing Rachel down before turning it sharply northeast.

The slide continues. Advisory 48 has Rachel near 50 mph (80 km/h) on Friday morning, then 45 mph (75 km/h) from Friday evening through Sunday morning, and 40 mph (65 km/h) by Sunday evening.

It ends inland, and later than Advisory 40 had it. Advisory 44 keeps Rachel at tropical storm strength into Saturday evening, then has it post-tropical and inland by Sunday evening at 40 mph (65 km/h), and dissipated on Monday.

The caveat matters. Discussion 44 warns that tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rain could still come with whatever is left of Rachel’s circulation even once its convection has eroded over land.

Polo’s cold wake and cooler water drive the near-term weakening. Discussion 44 then has the approaching trough raising vertical wind shear substantially, stripping the remaining convection, so the re-strengthening window is closed.

Polo is part of the reason. Rachel is crossing its predecessor’s cold wake, where sea surface temperatures drop from 29 to 27 C over the next day or two, and the NHC says that will speed the weakening along.

The track has bent back east. Discussion 36 keeps Rachel moving west to west-northwest for several days, then has the steering high weaken as a trough amplifies near the US West Coast.

That turns it around at the end. Advisory 48 has the remnant inland at 37.4N 112.6W by Sunday evening, over southern Utah, and dissipated by Monday, further northeast again than the 36.4N 113.0W it showed on Wednesday.

The coastal alerts are up. A Tropical Storm Warning covers the west coast of Baja California from San Jose de Las Palomas north to the US border, and the east coast from Isla San Luis north to Puerto Peñasco.

The watches came with them. Advisory 52A has Tropical Storm Watches for the Southern California coast from the border to the San Diego and Orange county line, for eastern Baja California from Bahía de los Ángeles to Isla San Luis, and for Puerto Libertad to Puerto Peñasco.

The rain threat is back, just somewhere else. Advisory 44 has Rachel’s moisture spreading over the southwestern United States and the northern Baja California peninsula through the weekend, with a threat of flash and urban flooding.

The swell line is back too. Advisory 44 has swells partly generated by Rachel building along Southern California and northern Baja California through the weekend, with life-threatening surf and rip currents.

That is a different coast from the one Rachel first threatened. The surf threat has moved off the Michoacán and Jalisco shoreline Polo raked and up to the northern Baja and Southern California stretch instead.

Jalisco shut the schools again for it. Classes were suspended across 30 municipalities on Wednesday, September 30, including Puerto Vallarta, Cabo Corrientes, Tomatlán, La Huerta, Mascota and Talpa de Allende itself.

Those classes resumed on Thursday, October 1. Jalisco had forecast 100 to 150 mm of rain between Wednesday and Thursday, with 3 to 4 metre waves on the coast holding through Friday.

Baja California Sur is next in line. The state civil protection council suspended school in Los Cabos for Thursday, October 1, at all levels and both shifts, with 50 to 75 mm of rain forecast for the south of the state.

Los Cabos closed its beaches too. Fourteen went to black flags on Thursday, nine in Cabo San Lucas including El Chileno, El Tule and Las Viudas, and five in San José del Cabo including Palmilla, Costa Azul and La Playa.

The port went to a partial closure. Cabo San Lucas restricted operations for smaller vessels, and the SMN put waves at 4 to 6 m off southern Baja California Sur and 3 to 4 m off Sinaloa, Nayarit and Jalisco.

The rain is moderate but wide. The SMN forecast 50 to 75 mm (2 to 3 in) for southern Baja California Sur, central and southern Sinaloa, Nayarit and western Jalisco.

Los Cabos kept the schools shut. The suspension held through Friday, October 2 at all levels and both shifts, with the SMN putting waves at 4 to 6 metres along the southern Baja California Sur coast.

The municipality opened shelters too. Four went up from Wednesday: two in Cabo San Lucas, at the Heroes de 1847 and Sor Juana Ines de la Cruz primary schools, and two in San José del Cabo, at Technical Secondary 14 and CECyT 04.

Evacuations ran overnight. Crews began moving families out of risk zones at 1:00 AM Friday, and 45 people ended up in the shelters, 20 in Cabo San Lucas and 25 in San José del Cabo.

Rachel Turns Back Toward Baja and the Southwest

The end of the forecast is where Rachel gets interesting again. Discussion 44 has the approaching trough slowing it, then accelerating it northeast toward northern Baja California and the southwestern United States.

Where it lands has shifted left. Discussion 48 has the NHC adjusting its track closer to the HCCA and GDMI guidance again, which now favours a leftward shift as Rachel approaches land, with a broad western-US trough adding a more northerly component.

The winds will not be gone by then. Advisory 44 holds Rachel at tropical storm strength into the weekend, and its first key message now has strong winds and coastal flooding reaching extreme northern Baja California and Southern California.

The gusts then push inland. The NHC has them spreading over interior portions of the southwestern United States into early next week, which is a longer reach than the moisture-only story Advisory 40 told.

That is a different kind of story from the one this post started with. The basin’s Category 5 ran past Guerrero; its last hurricane is now making for the California border as a tropical storm, with rain for the deserts behind it.

A Tropical Storm Watch for San Diego County

This is the rare part. NWS San Diego has a Tropical Storm Watch up for all of San Diego County from Friday evening through Tuesday, only the second tropical storm alert in the county’s history after Hilary in August 2023.

The office expects Rachel to make landfall somewhere near the US and Mexico border late Saturday night, bringing coastal flooding, wind and periods of heavy rain into Sunday. A further northward shift would widen the heavy-rain footprint across the county.

The wind numbers are real. Sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) or more are expected on Rachel’s southeast side, with gusts of 40 to 55 mph (65 to 90 km/h) on the desert slopes and into the deserts, and local gusts to 60 mph (95 km/h) on mountain ridges.

The flood risk is runoff rather than totals. Peak rates near 0.50 to 1.00 in (13 to 25 mm) in some mountain areas put flash and urban flooding on the table, and the San Diego River at Fashion Valley is forecast to peak at 7.4 ft (2.3 m) Sunday afternoon, just below monitor stage.

Mexico has moved too. The Segunda Zona Naval activated the preventive phase of Plan Marina for seven Baja California municipalities: Tijuana, Playas de Rosarito, Tecate, Mexicali, Ensenada, San Quintín and San Felipe.

Rachel Comes Ashore South of Ensenada

It arrived early, and already finished as a tropical cyclone. Rachel crossed the coast about 25 mi (40 km) south-southeast of Ensenada around midnight Sunday, with 60 mph (95 km/h) winds and a 987 mb centre.

The speed is the headline. The centre ran inland north-northeast at 36 mph (57 km/h), fast enough to clear the border counties by Sunday afternoon, with the SMN putting 25 to 50 mm (1 to 2 in) of rain over Baja California.

San Diego County flooded before the centre got there. NWS San Diego issued Flash Flood Warnings after midnight for El Cajon, Santee, Alpine and Rancho San Diego, with 1 to 2 in (25-50 mm) already down.

Imperial County got thunderstorms instead. Warnings there covered El Centro, Calexico, Brawley and Calipatria at rates up to 1.5 in (38 mm) an hour, and a Flood Watch runs across the San Diego coast, valleys and mountains until 8:00 PM Sunday.

The coast has the bigger problem. A Coastal Flood Warning covers the San Diego and Orange county shoreline until 3:00 PM Sunday, with morning high tides of 7 to 7.5 ft (2.1-2.3 m) on water already running above prediction.

Then the wind peaks. NWS San Diego has gusts of 50 to 80 mph (80-130 km/h) over the mountains, passes and desert slopes between about 4:00 and 10:00 AM, and 25 to 45 mph (40-72 km/h) at lower elevations.

Rachel’s Remnants Set a Las Vegas Rain Record

The desert took the leftovers. NWS Las Vegas recorded 1.08 in (27 mm) on Sunday, October 11, a daily record for the date against the 0.78 in set in 2012, on a day whose normal is 0.01 in.

One day beat the month and then some. Las Vegas has 1.19 in (30 mm) for October against a normal of 0.10 in, and that single Sunday supplied almost all of it.

The NHC had flagged exactly this. Advisory 58 forecast 1 to 3 in (25 to 75 mm) with local maxima to 5 in (125 mm) from Southern California into the Great Basin and the Southwest, with significant flash and urban flooding.

Rachel’s Rain Floods Los Cabos

Saturday is when the water actually came. Heavy rain and wind hit Los Cabos through the afternoon of October 3, flooding main avenues and turning residential streets into channels.

Two colonias took the worst of it. Luis Donaldo Colosio and Colinas de San José were the zones most affected by the currents and wind, with runoff dragging sediment off dirt streets onto the main roads.

Both towns reported arroyos running. Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo had street flooding and stream runoff through the afternoon, and a seawall was damaged over in Sinaloa.

The response was a crossings operation. Los Cabos deployed Operativo Cruce Seguro, posting civil protection, public security and military personnel at high-risk crossings with one instruction: do not cross arroyos or fords, on foot or by vehicle.

The SMN held its rain call at 50 to 75 mm (2 to 3 in) for southern Baja California Sur on Saturday, with waves down to 3 to 4 m on the state coast and 2 to 3 m off Sinaloa, Nayarit, Jalisco and Colima.

Sunday brought the same again, onto worse ground. Rachel sat about 500 km (310 mi) off Cabo San Lucas as a Category 2, and Los Cabos went into another 50 to 75 mm day with soils the municipality already described as saturated after several days of rain.

Then the suspension came off. The State Civil Protection Council and the SEP cleared Los Cabos schools to reopen on Monday, October 5 once the SMN outlook improved, ending a closure that had run since Thursday, October 1.

What Happens Next

For Mexico, Polo is finished. Both landfalls are done, Baja California Sur and Sonora both reported a saldo blanco at the coast, and the NHC issued its final advisory on Tuesday night with Polo dissipated over the northwest.

Its five deaths in Mexico all came from rain, not wind: four in one family at La Cuesta, in Talpa de Allende, Jalisco, and a 66-year-old man swept into Arroyo Hondo at Soyopa, in the Sonora sierra.

Jalisco is the warning. Watch for river rises and slope failures wherever the outer bands have already soaked the ground; flash floods and mudslides lag the rainfall that causes them.

All the coastal watches and warnings are down. What is left in Mexico is recovery, and it is bigger than the first balances suggested.

Sonora now has an emergency declaration across 13 municipalities and more than 8,152 damaged homes, Guaymas is seeking a health emergency over sewage and dengue risk, and Jalisco is taking Talpa de Allende’s five destroyed homes to its disaster fund for relocation.

That forecast verified almost exactly. Polo was down to 35 mph (55 km/h) by 8:00 PM MST Tuesday, about 245 miles (395 km) northeast of Guaymas, and the NHC declared it dissipated in the same advisory.

The track has settled down. The NHC made little change to its forecast and says it now sits near HCCA and GDMI, the two best-performing models of the year so far.

Polo’s remnant vorticity has phased with the cutoff low over the Four Corners, and the flooding that followed is now the biggest thing Polo is doing anywhere, from Arizona and New Mexico east toward the Plains and the Midwest.

The NHC’s final advisory kept a Wind Advisory up for southern New Mexico and far western Texas, the only live alert left anywhere in Polo’s name.

Polo itself dissipated over mainland Mexico on Tuesday night, well before it could reach the United States. Its moisture got there anyway.

For Hawaii, the pinch point has passed. Nolo reached Category 4 only after pulling west of the islands, so the story there was rain, wind and surf rather than a direct strike, months after the worst flooding in two decades this March.

The remaining hazard is surf. Kauai took about 16 inches (405 mm) in the mountains and Oahu 2 to 5 inches (50-125 mm), and the main islands now have no watches or warnings left.

The swell turned out small. Honolulu has the new long-period south swell filling in through Monday and peaking only slightly above average Tuesday into Wednesday, with no high surf advisory anywhere in the state.

The marine alerts are down too. NWS Honolulu cancelled the Small Craft Advisory for all Hawaiian waters on Monday evening as the trades eased, and expects it to stay cancelled through the rest of the week.

The next rain threat has nothing to do with Nolo. A strengthening low about 750 mi (1,210 km) north of Kauai has turned the flow southerly, drawing deep tropical moisture with precipitable water above two inches over the western half of the chain.

It eases from Friday. NWS Honolulu has the heavy-rain chances diminishing on Friday as the low weakens several hundred miles northwest of Kauai, with a few heavy showers lingering through the weekend.

It favours the wrong side of the islands. Moderate southerly flow draws deep tropical moisture over the western half of the chain, possibly as far east as Maui, and leeward areas flood at lower totals than windward ones.

The watch verified, then expired. NWS Honolulu recorded flash flooding on both Kauai and Oahu under that Flood Watch, and the watch is no longer in effect.

Kauai went first, as forecast. NWS Honolulu has the Kauai event ending Wednesday night as dry air moved in from the southwest, with that dry air reaching Oahu on Thursday and the heavy rain tapering over the hours after.

Even the leftover swell changes hands. A small, long-period west swell from Typhoon Choi-wan reaches the islands Thursday into the weekend, with moderate surf possible on west-facing shores.

Nolo is out of the basin. It crossed the International Date Line around midday Sunday Hawaiian time at 115 mph (185 km/h), and the CPHC closed it out with Advisory 57, the last one the NHC will issue on this storm.

It is Typhoon Nolo now, and someone else’s forecast. RSMC Tokyo and the JTWC have it from here, their five-day track keeps it clear of land, and the swell on the western atolls is all that is left of it in Hawaii.

Rachel is over. It peaked as a Category 3, rebuilt to 105 mph (165 km/h), and Advisory 58 at 8:00 AM MST Sunday was the last one the NHC will issue, with the remnants 255 mi (415 km) north-northeast of San Diego at 35 mph (55 km/h).

Nothing is left on the coast. Mexico discontinued all its coastal warnings with that advisory, San Diego County’s watch has expired, and Discussion 58 has Rachel dissipated over the southwestern United States.

The hazards stay. Advisory 48 keeps life-threatening surf and minor to moderate coastal flooding on Southern California and northern Baja California, with 1 to 3 in (25 to 75 mm) of rain for Baja and the Southwest, locally 5 in (125 mm) on higher terrain.

The end of the week is the part to watch. The NHC slows Rachel down, then accelerates it northeast toward northern Baja California and Southern California, and now expects it to arrive as a tropical storm rather than a post-tropical low.

The rainbands do not read the track map. Los Cabos flooded on Saturday afternoon with Rachel’s centre still 275 miles (440 km) offshore, which is the same lesson Polo taught in Jalisco.

Simon has run out of road. It peaked as a Category 4 overnight Friday, re-intensified to a Category 2 on Tuesday night, then fell away: Advisory 35 has it at 45 mph (75 km/h) and 1002 mb, about 190 mi (310 km) west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes.

The track is still loose. Discussion 27 keeps confidence low, citing weak steering, proximity to land, Simon’s very small size and wide model spread, with most guidance drifting it southwestward for a couple of days.

That second peak never came. The weakening the NHC flagged for Wednesday arrived instead, and Advisory 38 on Friday afternoon declared Simon dissipated, about 100 mi (160 km) south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas.

The warning area is gone. The Hurricane Watch for Las Islas Marías has since been dropped, and Advisory 35 lists no coastal watches or warnings in effect for Simon anywhere.

The rain threat shrank with the storm. Advisory 35 keeps only 1 to 2 in (25 to 50 mm) through early Saturday over Baja California Sur, with isolated maxima near 3 in (75 mm), and drops Nayarit and Sinaloa from the call.

Surge is on the list now too. Advisory 11A has a dangerous storm surge likely along the immediate coast near and east of wherever the centre comes ashore, with large and destructive waves on top of it.

Mexico is already closing schools for it. Jalisco suspended classes in 22 municipalities for Friday and Monday, including Puerto Vallarta, and Michoacán suspended them in seven, among them Lázaro Cárdenas and Coahuayana.

The hazard reaches past the landfall zone. Advisory 11A has Simon’s swells causing life-threatening surf and rip currents along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico over the next few days.

The bands behind it are wider and lighter: 75 to 150 mm (3 to 6 in) for Oaxaca and Chiapas, and 50 to 75 mm (2 to 3 in) for Michoacán, Estado de México, Mexico City, Puebla, Veracruz and Tabasco.

Its track is the part to watch. Discussion 3 has Simon running nearly parallel to the coastline around 72 hours out, so a track a little farther west keeps it over water and a track a little farther east means an earlier landfall.

This post is now a record rather than a live tracker. Polo dissipated on September 29, Nolo left the eastern Pacific on October 4 and is off the JMA’s tracked-cyclone list, and Rachel’s remnants dissipated over the southwestern United States on Sunday.

Rachel’s final advisory has now been issued, which was the last thing this tracker was waiting on. This is the final update, and the post is now closed as a record. Every storm in it is over.

Polo dissipated over northwestern Mexico on September 29 with five dead in Mexico and one in New Mexico, Nolo crossed the Date Line on October 4, and Rachel’s remnants dissipated over the Southwest on October 11.

What continues is Sonora’s recovery: an emergency across 13 municipalities, 29,230 people affected and more than 8,152 damaged homes, with the housing census still being worked through in Navojoa and Hermosillo.

Guaymas has closed its own count: 367 homes a total loss, about 600 families affected, and nobody left in a shelter as of Saturday, October 17.

Simon and Trudy are separate stories and get their own posts. Simon is now over too: Advisory 38 at 2:00 PM MST Friday was its final NHC advisory, with the remnants down to 35 mph (55 km/h) and 1006 mb after a Category 4 peak.

Trudy is over as well. Advisory 27 at 8:00 PM MST Monday was the final NHC advisory on the system, with Trudy a remnant low at 35 mph (55 km/h) and 1005 mb, about 160 mi (260 km) west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes.

It never turned back toward land. The remnant low was drifting north at 2 mph (4 km/h), and the NHC expects a very slow west-northwest drift until the circulation dissipates offshore.

That storm has its own tracker, and this post stays closed as a record of Polo, Nolo and Rachel.

With Trudy’s final advisory on Monday night, every storm named in this post has had its last one. What continues is Sonora’s reconstruction, which is a recovery story rather than a weather one.