Currently there are no significant storms
Tropical Weather Discussion
Discussion issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL at 1215 UTC on Wednesday, January 15, 2025. Covers North America, Central America, the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and the Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. Information based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.
- Special Features: Atlantic Significant Swell Event
The large, long-period NW swell impacting the central Atlantic is subsiding. Currently, seas of 12 ft or greater are covering waters N of 29N between 30W and 40W, subsiding below 12 ft early today. Another round of significant NW swell will impact waters N of 25N between 40W and 70W starting this afternoon through Friday, with wave heights of 12-18 ft possible.
- Website: Visit the National Hurricane Center for more details.
- Monsoon Trough/ITCZ: Convection
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N14W extending southwestward to 05N16W. The ITCZ extends from 05N16W to 02S40W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection occurs from 00N to 05N between 15W and 45W.
- Gulf of Mexico: Weather Conditions
A surface trough is present over the western Gulf, with high pressure elsewhere. Moderate to fresh winds are prevailing, reaching locally strong over the SW Gulf. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range.
- Forecast: The surface trough will linger over the western basin into Thursday night. Strong N winds will prevail W of the trough. Towards the end of the week, southerly winds may increase to fresh to strong ahead of the next cold front.
- Caribbean Sea: Trade Winds
Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean, reaching near gale force locally off Colombia. Moderate winds cover other regions. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range over the south-central Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the north-central and eastern Caribbean, and 3-4 ft over the western Caribbean.
- Forecast: High pressure building across the western Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds over the eastern and south-central Caribbean, with strong winds pulsing off Colombia and offshore Hispaniola into Friday night. Long period swell likely to arrive into Atlantic passages by Friday.
- Atlantic Ocean: Cold Front and Swell
A cold front extends from 31N60W to the central Bahamas, while a stationary front extends from 31N39W to the northern Windward Islands. Moderate to fresh winds prevail N of 30N and W of 35W, with gentler winds elsewhere. Seas range from 8-12 ft N of 12N between 22W and 59W, while elsewhere seas are 5-7 ft.
- Forecast W of 55W: The cold front will stall over far SE waters by Thursday night. The front has brought in large, long-period NW to N swell over waters east of 75W, shifting east of 55W by Friday night.
Data Source: National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
*Tropical Depression (TD)
A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph. While not a hurricane, it’s a precursor stage that can develop into a more severe storm.
Category 1
Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled.
Category 2
Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads.
Category 3
Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.
Category 4
Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months.
Category 5
Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.