Currently there are no significant storms
Tropical Weather Discussion
Tropical Waves
- Wave near 24W: Moving west at 5-10 kt, scattered moderate convection from 07.5N-14N, east of 27W.
- Wave near 38W-39W: Moving west at 10-15 kt, scattered moderate convection from 07.5N-09.5N between 38W and 43W.
- Wave along 61W-62W: Moving west at 15 kt, Saharan Air inhibits convection north of 13N; moderate isolated strong convection from 11.5N-14N between 63W and 67W.
- Wave near 75W: Moving west at 15 kt, strong convection along the monsoon trough in southern Colombia.
- Wave near 89W: Shifted west of the Atlantic basin, now across Guatemala and the eastern Pacific.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W to 07N42W. The ITCZ extends from 07N42W to 05N53W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ mainly west of 50W.
Gulf of America
- Current Conditions: A 1020 mb high centered near 27N87W, leading to light to gentle anticyclonic winds and slight seas of 4 ft or less.
- Forecast: Weak high pressure will prevail, with fresh to strong NE to E winds pulsing along the Yucatan Peninsula. A surface trough is expected across Florida by Monday.
Caribbean Sea
Pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas continuing in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds and seas expected in the eastern Caribbean through the weekend.
Atlantic Ocean
The Bermuda High dominates with moderate to fresh trades west of 40W. Fresh to locally strong trades near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Stable atmospheric conditions are reinforced by Saharan Air.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will shift eastward and weaken, supporting gentle to moderate winds. Fresh to locally strong winds off Hispaniola through Saturday, diminishing by Sunday.
Data Source: National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
*Tropical Depression (TD)
A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph. While not a hurricane, it’s a precursor stage that can develop into a more severe storm.
Category 1
Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled.
Category 2
Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads.
Category 3
Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.
Category 4
Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months.
Category 5
Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.