Currently there are no significant storms
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion — 2026-01-16 23:02 EST
Overview
A cold front extends across the western Atlantic and Caribbean with associated wind shifts and moderate seas. In the Gulf of Mexico, another cold front is approaching from Texas, contributing to increasing southerly winds west of 92W. Scattered moderate convection is active south of Jamaica, and trade wind-driven convection continues along the ITCZ in the tropical Atlantic.
Regional Highlights
- Gulf of Mexico: Gentle to moderate southeast winds dominate much of the basin, with fresh southerly winds west of 92W. Seas range from 2–4 ft, increasing to 3–5 ft where fresh winds are present, and 4–6 ft in the southeast Gulf from decaying northwest swell. No significant convection reported.
- Caribbean: A stationary front stretches from far eastern Cuba to near the northeast Honduras coast, northwest of which moderate to fresh northeast winds and 5–7 ft seas prevail. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 12N to 17N between 74W and 80W, associated with a trough south of Jamaica. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds continue in the eastern and central basin, including the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia.
- Western Atlantic: A weakening cold front extends from 31N62W to eastern Cuba, with fresh southerly winds ahead of it north of 29N to 55W and fresh northeast winds following for about 120 nm. Rough seas extend to near 75W, with very rough conditions up to 14 ft north of 27N between 64W and 71W.
Marine Conditions
- Winds: Fresh to strong trades in the central and eastern Atlantic north of 18N and east of 50W. Fresh southeast to southerly flow west of 92W in the Gulf. Moderate to fresh easterlies dominate much of the Caribbean east of the stationary front, with locally strong winds offshore Colombia.
- Seas: 8–11 ft across much of the Atlantic east of 50W and as far south as the Cabo Verde Islands; 6–8 ft in the northeastern Caribbean; 5–7 ft northwest of the Caribbean front; 3–6 ft throughout the Gulf, with isolated higher areas in the southeast and west.
Source & Method
Summary derived from the NHC Tropical Weather Discussion as of 2026-01-16 23:02 EST. Present conditions only; no outlooks included.
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
< 39 mph
Minimal effects
74–95 mph
Very dangerous winds
96–110 mph
Extremely dangerous
111–129 mph
Devastating
130–156 mph
Catastrophic
157+ mph
Catastrophic
*Tropical Depression (TD)
A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph. While not a hurricane, it’s a precursor stage that can develop into a more severe storm.
Category 1
Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled.
Category 2
Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads.
Category 3
Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.
Category 4
Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months.
Category 5
Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.