Currently there are no significant storms
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion — 2026-02-04 20:02 EST
Overview
A cold front stretches across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the western Atlantic, triggering areas of convection and strong winds. A stationary front traverses the eastern and central Caribbean, accompanied by a surface trough and bands of low-level clouds. In the Atlantic, gale-force winds and significant swell are ongoing both north and east of the Leeward Islands due to multiple frontal systems.
Regional Highlights
- Gulf of Mexico: A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to northeast Mexico. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas are present behind the front, with moderate to fresh southwest winds ahead of it and scattered showers within 120 nautical miles of the frontal boundary, particularly in the northeastern Gulf.
- Caribbean: A stationary front from the Leeward Islands to near 14N78W, combined with a surface trough from the Cayman Islands to off Panama, is producing extensive cloud cover and possible showers west of the trough. Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds are noted in the central Caribbean, especially south of 18N, with seas ranging from 7 to 11 ft in that region.
- Western Atlantic: A front extends from 31N29W to the Leeward Islands with fresh to strong winds and rough seas on either side north of 27N between 20W and 50W. Gale-force winds are occurring north of 25N and east of 75W due to frontal passage, generating very rough seas.
Marine Conditions
- Winds: Fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf behind the front; fresh to locally strong NE–E winds in the central Caribbean; fresh to strong winds on either side of Atlantic cold fronts, especially north of 27N.
- Seas: Seas up to 11 ft in the central Caribbean south of 18N. In the Atlantic, very rough seas range from 12 to 17 ft north of 25N east of 75W, and 12 to 16 ft between 26N and 31N east of 52W.
Source & Method
Summary derived from the NHC Tropical Weather Discussion as of 2026-02-04 20:02 EST. Present conditions only; no outlooks included.
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
< 39 mph
Minimal effects
74–95 mph
Very dangerous winds
96–110 mph
Extremely dangerous
111–129 mph
Devastating
130–156 mph
Catastrophic
157+ mph
Catastrophic
*Tropical Depression (TD)
A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph. While not a hurricane, it’s a precursor stage that can develop into a more severe storm.
Category 1
Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled.
Category 2
Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads.
Category 3
Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.
Category 4
Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months.
Category 5
Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.