Currently there are no significant storms
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion — 2026-02-04 22:02 EST
Overview
A cold front extends across the Gulf of Mexico and continues into the western Atlantic, accompanied by fresh to strong winds and scattered showers. A stationary front remains in place across the eastern and central Caribbean. Two separate swell events—one in the southwestern and north-central Atlantic and another in the northeast Atlantic—are producing very rough seas. Significant convection is occurring near the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) off the coast of Africa and Brazil.
Regional Highlights
- Gulf of Mexico: A cold front stretches from the Florida Panhandle to northeast Mexico. Fresh to strong northerly winds occur behind the front, with moderate to fresh southwesterly winds ahead of it. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present in the northeastern Gulf coastal waters.
- Caribbean: A stationary front extends from the Leeward Islands to near 14N78W, with a surface trough westward to the southwest Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds prevail in the central Caribbean, along with seas of 7 to 11 ft south of 18N. Low-level clouds and possible showers remain west of the trough.
- Western Atlantic: A cold front extends from 31N29W to 22N50W, becoming stationary to the Leewards. Fresh to strong winds are noted on both sides of the boundary, with seas over 8 ft extending from the Mona Passage into the northeast subtropical Atlantic.
Marine Conditions
- Winds: Fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf behind the advancing front; moderate to fresh trades south of 20N in the Atlantic; fresh to strong NE–E winds in the central Caribbean and near the Atlantic front.
- Seas: Significant wave heights of 7–11 ft in the central Caribbean south of 18N; 12–16 ft seas in the NE subtropical Atlantic east of 52W; up to 17 ft seas in the north-central Atlantic near 31N due to gale-driven swell.
Source & Method
Summary derived from the NHC Tropical Weather Discussion as of 2026-02-04 22:02 EST. Present conditions only; no outlooks included.
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
< 39 mph
Minimal effects
74–95 mph
Very dangerous winds
96–110 mph
Extremely dangerous
111–129 mph
Devastating
130–156 mph
Catastrophic
157+ mph
Catastrophic
*Tropical Depression (TD)
A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph. While not a hurricane, it’s a precursor stage that can develop into a more severe storm.
Category 1
Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled.
Category 2
Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads.
Category 3
Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.
Category 4
Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months.
Category 5
Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.