A Massive Heat Dome Is Building Over the U.S.: What’s Coming, and Where (Mapped)

This tracker has followed a single heat dome since 25 June, and a month on it is still going. A massive heat dome, what meteorologists sometimes call a “death ridge,” first built over the central United States ahead of the Fourth of July weekend, then rebuilt twice over the interior West and Plains.

As of 12 August the Southwest has flipped the other way. NWS Phoenix now has lower-desert temperatures running 3 to 6°F below normal from Wednesday, at Minor HeatRisk, after every Extreme Heat Warning in Arizona, southern Nevada and southeast California expired.

The last desert warnings ran out on Monday evening. They covered western Imperial County and the Lower Colorado River Valley, where heat index values peaked between 110 and 120°F (43 to 49°C).

The hazard has moved to the middle of the country, and grown. Nine Extreme Heat Warnings now cover Kansas, Missouri, southern Illinois and the Texas Panhandle, most of them running to Friday, with 36 Heat Advisories behind them.

Saturday was the peak. NWS Phoenix measured 500 mb heights of 596 to 598 dam over the Four Corners, above the 98th percentile for early August, and lower-desert highs reached 110 to 115°F (43 to 46°C) at widespread Major HeatRisk.

Wednesday goes below normal. NWS Phoenix has a large majority of the region at Minor HeatRisk, with storm chances of 50 to 70% in the north and east and flash flooding rather than heat as the main threat.

The ridge also opened a second front, and on Saturday it broke open. Behind gusts of 35 to 45 mph the Old Trails fire crossed the Spokane River into Spokane, destroying homes across the Indian Trail and Five Mile Prairie neighborhoods.

NIFC now lists 774 structures lost across the three fires (569 on Old Trails, 149 on Autumn Lane, 56 on Fairview), while Spokane reporting on Tuesday put buildings destroyed at about 833. No deaths have been reported.

And investigators say it was deliberate. Aaron F. Farinacci, 37, was arraigned on Thursday on five counts of first-degree arson, and his bond was raised from $1 million to $2 million.

Incident commander Tom Clemo said probably the largest and most destructive fire in Washington’s history happened on Saturday afternoon. Old Trails, Autumn Lane and Fairview are now run as one incident, the Spokane Area Fires, and crews have finally got lines around all three.

Containment kept climbing. NIFC’s 11 August report lists Fairview at 992 acres and 97% contained, Autumn Lane at 5,764 acres and 89%, and Old Trails at 3,176 acres and 73%, the three together totalling 9,932 acres.

The damage count edged up. Saturday’s Spokane-area reporting put 921 structures damaged or destroyed across the three fires: 694 on Old Trails, 168 on Autumn Lane and 59 on Fairview.

The response is drawing down fast. NIFC’s 11 August report has 1,098 personnel assigned across the three fires, down from a peak of 1,986 from 176 jurisdictions on Saturday.

Then they all came down. The Spokane County Sheriff’s Office lifted every remaining evacuation level at 2 p.m. Tuesday, ten days after the Old Trails fire crossed the river into the city.

Residents can go back for good. Officials warn that hazardous substances are present in and around the burn area, and recommend protective equipment for anyone returning to a standing home or to rubble.

Recovery work has taken over. The Spokane Regional Health District cleared the EPA and FEMA to begin household hazardous material assessment and clean-up, with free protective kits at the Shadle Park High School assistance center. No deaths have been reported.

A new warning landed overnight. NWS Spokane issued a Red Flag Warning at 11:29 p.m. Tuesday, valid 11 a.m. to 11 p.m. Wednesday, this time for lightning rather than wind.

Thunderstorms are the new risk. Scattered storms run from late morning to late evening, with gusty erratic outflow winds up to 40 mph around new and existing fires across the east Cascades, northeast Washington and the north Idaho panhandle.

The complex got past the stretch incident commander Tom Clemo had called the most critical of the incident: “We have got to get past these two days.” Fire behavior analyst Ryan Swanson said fuel moistures were the lowest recorded or forecast in 21 years.

Everyone is now accounted for. The sheriff’s office worked through 290 evacuation assistance reports, and on Tuesday it confirmed that all 14 people it had still been trying to reach are safe.

Washington remains under a statewide emergency with 110 National Guard members activated, and on Tuesday President Trump approved a federal emergency declaration for the fires.

FEMA had already authorized fire management assistance grants for all three Spokane fires. Mayor Lisa Brown called it the worst natural disaster the region has faced.

It arrived at a striking moment. Europe was in the grip of its own heat dome at the same time, with records falling from Spain to the UK, so extreme summer heat hit both sides of the Atlantic at once. You can follow the European side of the story in our Europe heatwave map.

The map below shows that original U.S. forecast setup. The dated log further down tracks where the heat has actually gone in the month since.

What’s coming, and when

Here is how the heat is expected to unfold over the coming days. This is a forecast, so timing and intensity may shift.

• August 12 (Spokane lifts every evacuation order, a lightning Red Flag Warning replaces the wind one, the heat settles over the middle and the Southeast): The Spokane County Sheriff’s Office lifted all remaining evacuation levels at 2 p.m. Tuesday, ten days after the Old Trails fire crossed the river, and the Spokane Regional Health District authorized the EPA and FEMA to begin household hazardous material assessment and clean-up, with free protective equipment kits at the Shadle Park High School assistance center. NIFC’s 11 August report put Fairview at 992 acres and 97% contained, Autumn Lane at 5,764 acres and 89% and Old Trails at 3,176 acres and 73%, the three totalling 9,932 acres with an estimated containment date of 15 August, assigned personnel down to 1,098 and 774 structures lost (569, 149 and 56), against about 833 buildings destroyed in Tuesday’s Spokane reporting and no deaths. Governor Bob Ferguson said Washington’s Major Disaster Declaration request is due in mid-September, adding that such declarations “are not always granted, and so we are determined to make our case as compelling as possible”. NWS Spokane then issued a new Red Flag Warning at 11:29 p.m. Tuesday, valid 11 a.m. to 11 p.m. Wednesday for the east Cascades, the Okanogan and Methow valleys, the Waterville Plateau, northeast Washington, the Colville Reservation and the northern and central Idaho Panhandle, this time for lightning rather than wind, with scattered thunderstorms and gusty erratic outflow winds to 40 mph; Air Quality Alerts were extended to noon Friday across eastern Washington and the northern Idaho panhandle. Nationally NIFC held Preparedness Level 5 with 104 large uncontained fires and 29,939 personnel after 142 new fires and 12 new large incidents, and the year reached 46,305 fires and 6,428,813 acres, 126% of the ten-year average for fires and 156% for acres; Little Giant added 5,527 acres to 116,956 at 2% containment and Big Grass in Oregon grew 12,893 acres to 553,972 as containment slipped to 35%. On the heat side, nine Extreme Heat Warnings now cover Kansas, Missouri, southern Illinois and the Texas Panhandle, most running to Friday, with 36 Heat Advisories from Nebraska and Iowa to Alabama, the Carolinas and Florida, St Louis warned to 8 p.m. Thursday for heat index values up to 111°F (44°C) and Perry County, Illinois to 7 p.m. Friday for around 113°F (45°C). NWS Charleston and NWS Jacksonville issued Extreme Heat Watches for Thursday along the Georgia, South Carolina and northeast Florida coast, with heat index values up to 115°F (46°C) possible, and WPC’s 12 August extended discussion, valid 15 to 19 August, kept a broad upper ridge over the southern tier with record warm overnight temperatures. In the Southwest, NWS Phoenix has lower-desert temperatures 3 to 6°F below normal from Wednesday at Minor HeatRisk, with 50 to 70% storm chances and flash flooding the main threat.
• August 11 (the Southwest heat breaks, the hazard sets up over the Midwest, Washington asks for individual aid): Every Extreme Heat Warning in Arizona, southern Nevada and southeast California has expired, the last of them over western Imperial County and the Lower Colorado River Valley at 8 p.m. Monday. NWS Phoenix has Tuesday back near normal at widespread Minor to localized Moderate HeatRisk and sees no extreme heat for at least seven days, with monsoon storms, precipitable water of 1.7 to 2.0 inches and flash flooding taking over from Wednesday; NWS Las Vegas has the high pushing east, HeatRisk dropping by midweek and highs back to the 90s and lower 100s°F (32 to 39°C). The heat went to the middle of the country instead: four Extreme Heat Warnings now cover central and eastern Missouri, southeast Kansas and southern Illinois, to 8 p.m. Wednesday at St Louis and Kansas City for heat index values up to 111°F (44°C) and to 8 p.m. Thursday in Perry County, Illinois for up to 113°F (45°C), alongside 40 Heat Advisories from the Texas Panhandle and Kansas to the Carolinas, Georgia and Florida. WPC’s 11 August extended discussion, valid 14 to 18 August, calls it a protracted heatwave from the south-central to the southeastern U.S. with widespread record overnight temperatures. In Spokane, NIFC’s 10 August report put Autumn Lane at 5,776 acres and 73% contained, Old Trails at 3,176 acres and 53% and Fairview at 992 acres and 53%, the three totalling 9,944 acres, with more than 1,700 firefighters still assigned, 921 structures destroyed since 1 August and no reported deaths; the Spokane and Stevens county sheriffs lowered evacuation levels again on Monday, with Level 3 orders held inside the fire perimeters, and Governor Bob Ferguson said he will seek a Major Disaster Declaration to unlock individual assistance and signed an amended emergency proclamation on state aid, document fees, unemployment waiting periods and evictions. The Little Giant fire near Lake Chelan destroyed 26 structures in the upper Entiat Valley, two primary residences among them, and reached 111,429 acres at 2% containment. Nationally NIFC held Preparedness Level 5 with 98 large uncontained fires and 29,840 personnel, and the year stands at 46,064 fires and 6,354,141 acres against 43,061 fires and 3,623,392 acres in 2025.
• August 10 (the heat warning buys another day, Spokane sends most evacuees home, the hazard slides south): The Southwest did not quite let go: active NWS alerts and the Phoenix and Las Vegas discussions carry the Extreme Heat Warning to 8 p.m. Monday 10 August for the Phoenix metro, Arizona’s lower deserts, the Las Vegas Valley, Death Valley and the Colorado River Valley, one day later than the expiry the post had been carrying. NWS Phoenix holds lower-desert highs at 108 to 112°F (42 to 44°C) at Major HeatRisk, easing to Moderate over the metro during the afternoon, with heat index values of 115 to 118°F (46 to 48°C) over southeast California and the Lower Colorado River Valley, precipitable water rising to 1.5 to 1.8 inches and near-seasonal readings expected by Tuesday and possibly below normal later in the week. NWS Las Vegas puts Monday at 109°F (43°C) in Las Vegas, short of the 114°F (46°C) mark from 1940, and near 125°F (52°C) at Death Valley against the 2012 record, with the warm-minimum records at Las Vegas (87°F / 30°C, 2025) and Death Valley (100°F / 38°C, 2024) in play, Major to isolated Extreme HeatRisk above 110°F (43°C) across most of the Mojave, and a considerable drop from Tuesday as monsoon moisture reaches 150 to 200% of normal with isolated flash flooding by midweek; the NWS Reno warning for the Western Nevada Basin and Range ended at 8 a.m. Monday. In Spokane the evacuation footprint collapsed: at about 1:30 p.m. Sunday the incident management team and Spokane County dropped the Old Trails, Autumn Lane and Fairview areas to Level 1 after the Red Flag Warnings expired, letting thousands return to north Spokane, while the fire path itself stays at Level 3 for mop-up, hotspots, damaged utilities and hazardous conditions, and there are still no reported deaths. NIFC’s 9 August report puts Autumn Lane at 5,784 acres and 61% contained, Old Trails at 3,226 acres and 43% and Fairview at 992 acres and 43%, the complex trimmed to 10,002 acres. Nationally NIFC held Preparedness Level 5 with 94 large uncontained fires and 30,419 personnel after 183 new fires including 8 new large ones, and 45,872 fires for 6,328,055 acres this year against 42,962 fires and 3,604,307 acres at this point in 2025. Washington had 20 large fires across 516,976 acres and Oregon 23 across 1,821,328. Elsewhere in Washington Kaiser Canyon reached 138,268 acres at 62%, Sinlahekin 137,611 at 34% after a 10,671-acre day, Little Giant 97,539 at 2% after adding 14,781 acres, Modrite 56,860 at 57%, Ptarmigan 21,385 at 8%, Border 2 8,866 at zero and Grand Park 2 312 at zero. In Oregon Big Grass passed half a million acres at 504,385 and 39%, Rowe Creek Complex reached 366,617 at 79% and Coleman Creek held at 308,721 and climbed to 89%. NWS Spokane kept elevated fire conditions through the first part of the week with breezy Okanogan Valley winds Monday and Tuesday, Spokane near 86°F (30°C), and Air Quality Alerts to 11 a.m. Wednesday in eastern Washington, 11 a.m. Tuesday in north Idaho and 3 p.m. Monday around Lewiston. SPC’s day 1 fire weather outlook issued 1:34 a.m. CDT carried no Critical area, with Elevated risk over the Great Basin, California’s Central Valley and the southern High Plains, the last elevated to locally critical with gusts of 30 to 40 mph, and predominantly dry thunderstorms from northern Nevada into Idaho and Wyoming. WPC’s extended discussion issued 10 August, valid 13 to 17 August, kept the southern Plains, Gulf Coast and Southeast under the ridge at Major, locally Extreme HeatRisk, with repeated heavy rainfall from the central Plains into the mid-Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee valleys.
• August 9 (the Southwest heat peak passes, Spokane containment jumps again, the wind event clears): NIFC’s 8 August report put the Spokane Area Fires at Autumn Lane 5,784 acres and 47% contained, Old Trails 3,556 acres and 43% and Fairview 992 acres and 31%, the three totalling 10,332 acres, a jump of ten and twenty points on the two larger fires. Spokane-area reporting raised damaged or destroyed structures to 921 (694, 168 and 59), with 1,986 firefighters from 176 jurisdictions assigned, hazardous materials specialists assessing homes inside the Level 3 zones and still no reported deaths. The wind event the incident had braced for passed: the broad eastern Washington Red Flag Warning expired at 11 p.m. Saturday, leaving one warning over the east Cascades to 6 a.m. Sunday, though NWS Spokane expects another push of Cascade gap winds Sunday afternoon and evening at 20 to 35 mph with humidity of 18 to 25%, elevated to locally critical around Wenatchee and the Waterville Plateau, and warns that fuels are near or at record dryness and that the Chelan and Okanogan county fires have favorable conditions for significant growth. Air Quality Alerts run to 11 a.m. Wednesday in 13 eastern Washington counties, to 11 a.m. Sunday in five north Idaho counties and to 3 p.m. Monday in Latah, Nez Perce and Lewis counties, with Spokane near 88°F (31°C) and near-normal temperatures through Tuesday. Nationally NIFC held Preparedness Level 5 and counted 97 large uncontained fires with 30,636 personnel after 83 new fires including 9 new large ones, and 45,659 fires for 6,266,601 acres this year, another 157 fires and 597,185 acres in a day. Washington had 19 large fires across 463,175 acres and Oregon 26 across 1,734,295. Elsewhere in Washington Sinlahekin reached 126,940 acres at 28%, Kaiser Canyon 137,616 at 54%, Modrite 56,036 at 57% as it grew, Little Giant 82,758 at 1%, Ptarmigan 18,911 at 4% and Border 2 8,388 at zero, while Grand Park 2 in Mount Rainier National Park (200 acres) and Prairie Mountain (123 acres) joined the list. In Oregon Big Grass jumped 51,416 acres to 442,316 at 41%, Rowe Creek Complex reached 357,895 at 73%, Coleman Creek held at 308,721 and climbed to 82% and Grasshopper reached 49,645 at 23%. On the heat side NWS Phoenix put Saturday’s lower-desert highs at 110 to 115°F (43 to 46°C) at widespread Major HeatRisk, with 500 mb heights of 596 to 598 dam above the 98th percentile for early August, easing to 108 to 112°F (42 to 44°C) Sunday and 102 to 108°F (39 to 42°C) by Tuesday, with the Extreme Heat Warning expiring at 8 p.m. Sunday in Phoenix and Las Vegas; NWS Las Vegas flagged Sunday daily records at Las Vegas (114°F / 46°C, 1940) and Death Valley (125°F / 52°C, 2012) as in jeopardy, plus warm-minimum records at both, and NWS Elko ran Extreme Heat Warnings to 11 p.m. Sunday with southeastern Elko County extended to Monday. SPC’s day 1 fire weather outlook issued 1:14 a.m. CDT carried no Critical area, with Elevated risk from California into the Great Basin and Wyoming, in central California and on the southern High Plains. WPC’s extended discussion issued 9 August, valid 12 to 16 August, carried hazardous heat across the Southeast and southern Plains through Saturday with oppressive Gulf Coast heat indices, and a multi-day heavy rainfall threat from the mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley.
• August 8 (the Spokane fires turn a corner, the heat tops out, the national count climbs): NIFC’s 7 August report showed a step change on the Spokane Area Fires: Autumn Lane at 5,810 acres and 37% contained, Old Trails at 3,561 acres and 23% and Fairview at 992 acres and 31%, a complex of 10,363 acres, with Spokane-area reporting carrying the same three figures so the two ledgers finally agree. Damaged or destroyed structures held at 913 and there were still no reported deaths, while the response grew to more than 1,500 personnel from over 20 states and 100 jurisdictions. Incident commander Tom Clemo called the next 48 hours the most critical of the incident and fire behavior analyst Ryan Swanson said crews were working the lowest fuel moistures recorded or forecast in 21 years, with the Red Flag Warning running to 11 p.m. Saturday, a separate warning over the Colville Reservation, and gusts of 25 to 30 knots through the Cascade gaps and over the Waterville Plateau. NWS Spokane extended Air Quality Alerts through Wednesday in the Washington counties and through Monday in north Idaho, and forecast highs in the low to mid 90s°F (32 to 36°C) before a return to near normal on Sunday. Nationally the count went the other way: NIFC held Preparedness Level 5 but listed 95 large uncontained fires, up from 86, with 30,132 personnel assigned and 45,502 fires for 5,669,416 acres this year, 18 large fires across 455,600 acres in Washington and 29 across 1,716,575 acres in Oregon. Elsewhere in Washington Sinlahekin reached 126,807 acres at 26%, Kaiser Canyon 136,978 at 53%, Modrite 54,774 at 60% and Little Giant 77,509 at 1%, Mitre Rock jumped to 92% and Bradeen Hill to 79%, and two new fires joined the list, Ptarmigan at 17,279 acres and Border 2 at 6,983, both uncontained. In Oregon Big Grass jumped 31,989 acres to 390,900 at 39%, Rowe Creek Complex reached 354,842 at 64%, Coleman Creek held at 309,645 and climbed to 76% and Grasshopper reached 43,244 at 23%. On the heat side NWS Phoenix forecast lower-desert highs of 107 to 115°F (42 to 46°C) with heat index values of 112 to 118°F (44 to 48°C) and the Extreme Heat Warning to 8 p.m. Sunday, easing to 101 to 106°F (38 to 41°C) by Tuesday; NWS Las Vegas put Saturday near 114°F (46°C) against the 1978 daily record with a warm low near 88°F (31°C) against the 2025 record, and Death Valley near 125°F (52°C). SPC’s day 1 fire weather outlook issued 1:02 a.m. CDT carried no Critical area, keeping the northern Intermountain West and Pacific Northwest elevated to locally critical and adding a small Elevated area on the High Plains of southeast Colorado, southwest Kansas, northeast New Mexico and the western Oklahoma Panhandle. WPC’s extended discussion issued 8 August, valid 11 to 15 August, shifted the ridge east and built hazardous heat over the southern Plains, Southeast and Gulf Coast by midweek, with heavy rain from the Great Lakes and Midwest into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.
• August 7 (a Red Flag Warning returns to the fire ground, the arson case widens, the heat tops out): NWS Spokane upgraded Thursday’s watch to a Red Flag Warning at 8:48 p.m., valid 11 a.m. Friday to 11 p.m. Saturday, covering the eastern Cascades, Lake Chelan, the Okanogan and Methow valleys, the Waterville Plateau, the western Columbia Basin and the lower Palouse and Snake River, with southwest to west winds of 10 to 20 mph gusting 25 to 30 and humidity of 8 to 20% in the valleys; a Fire Weather Watch remained for the Colville Reservation on Saturday. More accurate mapping trimmed the Spokane Area Fires to 10,436 acres, with NIFC listing Old Trails at 3,574 acres and 5% contained, Autumn Lane at 5,870 and 13% and Fairview at 992 and 13%, and raising the official structure count to 812 (600, 156 and 56), while Cal Fire’s Thursday tally put damaged or destroyed structures at 913 (694, 160 and 59). About 1,400 personnel were working the complex on Thursday with 2,000 expected by the weekend, and no deaths had been reported. Spokane’s air quality index reached 153, Unhealthy, on Thursday morning, with NWS Spokane warning of Very Unhealthy readings even as western Washington began to clear. The arson case widened sharply: Aaron Farinacci was arraigned Thursday on five counts of first-degree arson covering the Old Trails, Aubrey White, TJ Meenach, Equestrian and Indian Bluff fires, Judge Jeremy Schmidt raised his bond to $2 million and ordered a competency evaluation, and detectives said he admitted setting 25 fires since July 2025, four corroborated, after planning Old Trails for weeks around a forecast of high wind, low humidity and heat and building a time-delay device from notebook paper, matches, a cigarette and a rubber band. Elsewhere in Washington the Sinlahekin fire slowed to a 3,614-acre day at 120,692 acres and 20% containment, Little Giant added 3,431 acres to 74,284 at 1%, Kaiser Canyon stood at 136,887 acres and 43% and Modrite at 53,750 and 39%. In Oregon Coleman Creek jumped 31,675 acres to 309,803 yet reached 70% containment, Rowe Creek Complex reached 340,276 at 62%, Big Grass 358,911 at 39% and the Grasshopper fire on the Mount Hood National Forest 39,439 at 20%. Nationally NIFC held Preparedness Level 5 and cut uncontained large fires to 86, with 45,287 fires for 5,589,443 acres in 2026, 144% of the 10-year average for acres, and 29,699 personnel assigned. On the heat side NWS Phoenix put the peak at today and Saturday, 107 to 115°F (42 to 46°C) at high-end Moderate to Major HeatRisk before the lower deserts fall to 101 to 106°F (38 to 41°C) by Tuesday, and Las Vegas stayed warned to 8 p.m. Sunday at 111 to 114°F (44 to 46°C) with lows of 87 to 90°F (31 to 32°C) and Death Valley near 125 to 126°F (52°C). WPC’s extended discussion issued 7 August, valid 10 to 14 August, has the ridge degrading and shifting east into the southern and central Plains and the Deep South, with heat indices of 105 to 115°F (41 to 46°C) for multiple days and multi-day heavy rain for the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians, while CPC’s week 2 outlook issued 6 August, valid 14 to 20 August, carries a moderate risk of extreme heat for the southern and central Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley and the Southeast on 14 to 16 August plus rapid-onset drought over the same ground.
• August 6 (Spokane gets its first containment, the heat peak moves to Saturday): The Spokane Area Fires turned a corner: Old Trails and Autumn Lane reached 13% containment and Fairview 5% across a complex of 10,546 acres, with primary lines in place and crews shifting to mop-up after a 2.5-acre spot fire outside the Old Trails line was caught. NIFC’s 5 August report gave the first official structure count for the complex, 570 destroyed on Old Trails, 80 on Autumn Lane and 57 on Fairview, 707 in all, and swung resources to Old Trails, which added 462 people to reach 843 assigned. The reprieve came with a warning attached: NWS Spokane issued a Fire Weather Watch for the Spokane area, the northeast Washington foothills, the Colville Reservation and the Columbia Basin through 11 p.m. Saturday, with southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph gusting to 25 and humidity of 10 to 18%, alongside matching watches for the Kittitas Valley, the central and north Cascades, Lake Chelan and the Okanogan and Methow valleys. Smoke pushed west of the mountains, with Air Quality Alerts added for the Puget Sound counties and Skagit and Whatcom to 5 p.m. Thursday. Elsewhere in Washington the Sinlahekin fire added 14,144 acres to 117,078 at 9% containment, Kaiser Canyon reached 136,713 acres at 48%, Modrite 51,836 at 35%, and the Little Giant fire northwest of Leavenworth added 11,507 acres to 70,853 at zero containment with Level 3 orders in Chelan County. Nationally NIFC held Preparedness Level 5 but cut uncontained large fires to 94, with 45,184 fires for 5,465,682 acres in 2026, 143% of the 10-year average for acres, and the Northwest carrying 49 of the uncontained fires and 18,572 of 28,700 assigned personnel. In Oregon, Big Grass reached 346,678 acres at 35%, Rowe Creek Complex 325,265 at 57% and Coleman Creek 278,128 at 32%, and the state was reported to have passed its 2024 acreage record. On the heat side NWS Phoenix moved the peak to Saturday at 110 to 116°F (43 to 47°C) with feels-like values to 120°F (49°C), Las Vegas extended its Extreme Heat Warning to 8 p.m. Sunday 9 August to match Phoenix, NWS Elko upgraded southeastern and south-central Elko County to an Extreme Heat Warning to 11 p.m. Sunday, and new warnings covered Grand Canyon Country below 4,000 feet and the Marble and Glen Canyons to Friday evening. WPC’s extended discussion, valid 9 to 13 August, keeps the ridge dominant over the Southwest through Sunday before it weakens and shifts east, and CPC’s week 2 outlook issued 5 August, valid 13 to 19 August, carries a moderate risk of extreme heat for the southern and central Plains and the lower Mississippi Valley on 13 to 16 August plus rapid-onset drought over the Plains and the Ozarks.
• August 5 (federal aid arrives, everyone is accounted for, the heat warnings run to Sunday): President Trump approved a federal emergency declaration for Washington on Tuesday, covering Spokane, Stevens, Ferry, Okanogan, Yakima and Chelan counties plus the Spokane Tribe, the Confederated Tribes of the Colville Reservation and the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation, with the federal government meeting 75% of eligible costs. The Spokane County Sheriff’s Office said all 14 people it had been trying to reach are safe, and no deaths have been confirmed. The Spokane Area Fires kept growing and stayed at zero containment: NIFC’s 4 August report put Old Trails at 3,621 acres, Autumn Lane at 5,603 after a 2,252-acre day and Fairview at 1,056, with 478, 381 and 72 personnel assigned; KHQ’s Tuesday evening tally had the complex at 10,546 acres. Spokane County Emergency Management lowered more evacuation zones, while an Air Quality Alert covering Spokane and 12 other eastern Washington counties ran on until further notice with fine particulates in the Very Unhealthy range. North of Spokane the Sinlahekin fire added 29,140 acres to 102,934 acres and picked up its first 5% containment, the Kaiser Canyon fire reached 136,547 acres at 44% and the Modrite fire 51,142 acres at 16%. Nationally NIFC held Preparedness Level 5 with 99 uncontained large fires and 45,050 fires for 5,253,328 acres in 2026, 138% of the 10-year average for acres, with Washington at 403,752 acres, Oregon 1,839,086 and Colorado 152,210; in Oregon the Rowe Creek Complex reached 323,951 acres at 60% and Coleman Creek 274,635 acres at 23%. On the heat side NWS Phoenix pushed its Extreme Heat Warning to 8 p.m. Sunday 9 August with metro highs of 106 to 114°F (41 to 46°C) at Major HeatRisk, Las Vegas held to 8 p.m. Saturday with Mojave highs of 110 to 120°F (43 to 49°C), and northern Nevada picked up a Heat Advisory and an Extreme Heat Watch into the weekend. Heat also rebuilt over the fire ground, with Heat Advisories for western Washington at 85 to 90°F (29 to 32°C) and northwest Oregon and southwest Washington at 93 to 98°F (34 to 37°C) into Thursday evening, smoke trimming those readings by 1 to 3 degrees. The Storm Prediction Center’s day 1 fire weather outlook, issued 12:07 a.m. CDT, again carried no Critical area, only Elevated risk over the northern Colorado Plateau into southwest Wyoming and the California valleys, and its convective outlook held only Marginal severe risks over the mid Mississippi Valley, the southern High Plains and southeastern Arizona. WPC’s extended discussion, valid 8 to 12 August, weakens the Southwest ridge through the weekend before it expands east across the central U.S. and the Southeast, and CPC’s week 2 outlook issued 4 August, valid 12 to 18 August, carries a moderate risk of extreme heat for the southern and central Plains and the lower Mississippi Valley on 12 to 15 August plus rapid-onset drought over the same ground.
• August 4 (the fire is ruled arson, the heat warnings stretch into the weekend): The Old Trails fire was set deliberately. The Spokane County Sheriff’s Office arrested Aaron F. Farinacci, 37, around 5 p.m. Monday on suspicion of first-degree arson, held on a $1 million bond and due in court Tuesday; a witness had seen him near the ignition point on Saturday and called police after spotting smoke, he was carrying waterproof matches and a butane lighter, Sheriff John Nowels said the evidence at the ignition point was consistent with a match or lighter and natural causes were ruled out, and Farinacci has a prior manslaughter conviction from Mesa, Arizona. The loss estimate widened rather than firmed: officials put it at 700 to 1,100 structures, with more than 700 confirmed and about 400 properties still to evaluate, more than 10,000 structures still listed at risk and 67,000 people under evacuation orders per incident commander Tom Clemo. No deaths have been reported; the sheriff’s office has worked through 290 evacuation assistance reports and is still trying to reach 14 people, which Nowels stressed are not missing-person cases. The Spokane Area Fires stood at 8,026 acres at zero containment at 6:25 a.m. Monday (Old Trails 3,619, Autumn Lane 3,351, Fairview 1,056), with Autumn Lane now the top priority after adding about 1,000 acres Sunday night and close to 900 firefighters assigned; the first evacuation downgrades came Monday, with the block between Magnesium Road, Francis Avenue, Division Street and Nevada Street dropped from Level 2 to Level 1. Elsewhere in Washington the Sinlahekin fire near Tonasket roughly doubled to 73,794 acres at zero containment with Level 3 orders now covering everything west of the Okanogan River north to Oroville including Palmer Mountain, Modrite grew to 49,895 acres as containment slipped to 17% and Kaiser Canyon reached 136,422 acres at 38%. In Oregon the Coleman Creek fire posted its first containment at 18% on 264,839 acres while still spreading east, the Rowe Creek Complex grew to 320,834 acres as containment slipped to 53%, and the state passed 2,014,481 acres across 60 large fires, closing on its all-time record of 2,081,661 acres set in 2024. NIFC’s 3 August report holds the country at Preparedness Level 5 with 102 uncontained large fires and year-to-date totals of 44,722 fires and 5,154,596 acres, revised down slightly from the previous day, against a 10-year average of 35,039 fires and 3,759,429 acres. On the heat side the warnings were extended again rather than lifted: Phoenix to 8 p.m. Friday 7 August and Las Vegas through Saturday, with Phoenix forecast at 110 to 113°F (43 to 45°C) Tuesday easing to 108 to 110°F (42 to 43°C) later in the week while rising dew points hold heat index values at 110 to 120°F (43 to 49°C). The Storm Prediction Center’s day 1 outlook, issued 12:35 a.m. CDT on 4 August, again carries no Critical or Extremely Critical area, with Elevated risk over the Great Basin and Colorado Plateau at 5 to 15% humidity and westerly winds of 12 to 20 mph gusting 30. WPC’s extended discussion issued 4 August, valid 7 to 11 August, keeps the ridge over the Southwest through the weekend before it weakens early next week, with midweek HeatRisk there stepping down to widespread moderate with isolated major and extreme values before the heat spreads north and then east toward the Mississippi Valley; CPC’s week 2 outlook issued 3 August, valid 11 to 17 August, moves the moderate extreme-heat risk onto the central Rockies and central to southern Plains and flags rapid-onset drought for the central to southern Great Plains and Ozarks. The Department of Energy’s emergency order to the Southwest Power Pool expired at 11:59 p.m. CDT on 3 August with no extension. In Colorado Aspen Acres holds at 67% (101,961 acres) with personnel down to 433 and Gold Mountain at 72% (39,507 acres, 338 personnel).
• August 3 (the scale of the Spokane loss lands): Daylight put a number on Saturday night: the Old Trails fire destroyed 640 structures, many of them homes in the Indian Trail and Five Mile Prairie neighborhoods, and Spokane Fire called the earlier preliminary count of 600 low. Incident commander Tom Clemo said probably the largest and most destructive fire in Washington’s history happened on Saturday afternoon, and Mayor Lisa Brown called it the worst natural disaster the region has faced. Old Trails, Autumn Lane and Fairview are now managed as one incident, the Spokane Area Fires, under California Incident Management Team 7 and still at zero containment, with reported complex size running from 5,390 acres on Sunday morning to about 7,700 acres later in the day. About 60,000 people are under evacuation orders, 409 families sheltered at the Convention Center, Fairchild Air Force Base opened an emergency family assistance center and the Mann-Grandstaff VA Medical Center closed and transferred patients; FEMA authorized fire management assistance grants for all three fires and Governor Bob Ferguson spoke with the president. No deaths or injuries were confirmed by Sunday evening, though officials said they were still assessing the potential for lives lost. On the heat side Phoenix broke its 2 August record at 115°F (46°C) at 3:02 p.m. with a record warm low of 94°F (34°C), both beating 2025 marks, and the warnings were extended rather than lifted: Arizona’s lower deserts through Tuesday night, Mohave County through Wednesday and southern Nevada until 8 p.m. Wednesday, with Las Vegas forecast at 113, 112 and 111°F (45 to 44°C) Monday to Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center’s day 1 fire weather outlook issued 2:02 a.m. CDT on 3 August dropped every Critical and Extremely Critical area, leaving only Elevated risk over the High Plains, Rockies and Great Basin, but WPC expects excessive heat back in the Pacific Northwest from Tuesday and Wednesday at upper 90s to low 100s°F (36 to 39°C). NIFC’s 2 August report holds the country at Preparedness Level 5 with 99 uncontained large fires after 18 new large incidents in a day, and 45,835 fires have now burned 5,275,247 acres in 2026, 142% of the 10-year average for acres. Kaiser Canyon reached 134,167 acres and 38%, Modrite 40,625 acres and 19%, Sinlahekin 36,268 acres at zero containment, and Oregon’s Coleman Creek fire ran 39,037 acres in a day to 251,219 acres while the Rowe Creek Complex slipped to 55% containment; in Colorado the new Rio Blanco fire south of Pagosa Springs grew to 1,011 acres at 13%.
• August 2 (the heat peaks, Spokane burns): The forecast fire weather emergency became a real one. The Old Trails fire started around noon Saturday west of Spokane and gusts of 35 to 45 mph drove it through Riverside State Park and across the Spokane River into the city, reaching 3,509 acres with no containment by 8:20 p.m., threatening at least 5,000 structures and burning an estimated 50 to 100 structures with dozens of homes lost in the Indian Trail neighborhood. Level 3 go-now orders emptied much of north Spokane, about 40,000 Avista customers lost power, shelters opened at Spokane Falls Community College and the Spokane Convention Center, Mayor Lisa Brown and the county commission declared emergencies and Governor Bob Ferguson declared a statewide emergency, banned most outdoor burning through 30 September and activated 110 National Guard members, the first fire-line call-up since 2021; Major General Gent Welsh called the conditions the worst of his 38-year career and no injuries were confirmed overnight. The nearby Fairview fire near Mead reached about 979 acres with its own Level 3 orders, the Kaiser Canyon fire stood at 131,300 acres and 30% and the Modrite fire grew about 17,500 acres in a day to more than 37,000 with containment falling from 63% to 30%; Washington has now had more than 1,000 fires burn about 425,000 acres this year, more than the previous five years combined. The Storm Prediction Center’s day 1 outlook issued 2 a.m. CDT dropped the Extremely Critical area and kept a Critical risk across Montana, central and eastern Idaho, western and central Wyoming and far northern Utah, about 192,900 square miles and 1.5 million people, with winds of 20 to 25 mph gusting 30 to 60 mph, humidity of 10 to 20% and energy release components above the 90th and 95th percentiles (98th in northern Montana). NIFC’s 1 August report put the country at National Preparedness Level 5 with 84 large uncontained fires and 44,256 fires and 4,904,011 acres burned this year against a 10-year average of 34,555 fires and 3,682,339 acres, while the Rowe Creek Complex reached 313,439 acres and 57% contained with 2,332 personnel. On the heat side the National Weather Service in Las Vegas held an Extreme Heat Warning through 8 p.m. Sunday with a Red Flag Warning, Heat Advisory and Air Quality Alert, Phoenix near 116°F (47°C) and the Las Vegas Valley at 112 to 115°F (44 to 46°C), more than 50 million people under heat alerts from California to Montana, and a note that July 2026 was Las Vegas’s third warmest July on record at 96.6°F (35.9°C). WPC’s 3:12 a.m. EDT discussion carried Slight Risks of excessive rainfall over the lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and central Appalachians, the North Carolina coast and the Florida Gulf coast on Sunday, shifting to the northern Mid-Atlantic, New England and the Carolinas on Monday, with a Slight Risk of severe storms over the Upper Midwest and northern Plains Monday into Tuesday; its extended discussion, valid 5 to 9 August, keeps major to extreme HeatRisk over the Southwest as the ridge is suppressed south then re-intensifies. In Colorado Aspen Acres held at 67% (101,961 acres, 520 personnel) with creeping and smoldering behavior and Gold Mountain climbed to 72% (39,506 acres, 398 personnel), with fire managers expecting activity to rise again as humidity drops.
• August 1 (the Southwest peaks, the Northwest goes Extremely Critical): NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center discussion issued 4 p.m. EDT Friday, valid 1 to 3 August, has 110 to 120°F (43 to 49°C) across parts of the Southwest under widespread major to extreme HeatRisk, the 90s and 100s°F (32 to 40°C) farther north, and warm nights with little relief. Death Valley is forecast to approach 125°F (52°C), Las Vegas and Phoenix top 115°F (46°C) for several days, Billings, Montana at 106°F (41°C) would break its August record and Salt Lake City is forecast at 104°F (40°C); across July, Phoenix logged 12 days at or above 110°F and Las Vegas 10. The National Weather Service in Las Vegas holds an Extreme Heat Warning, Heat Advisory, Fire Weather Watch and Air Quality Alert. The bigger new story is fire: the Storm Prediction Center’s day 1 outlook, issued 2:16 a.m. CDT, places central and southeastern Washington and northern Oregon at Extremely Critical fire weather risk as a dry cold front drives sustained winds past 30 mph and humidity to 5 to 15%, with Critical conditions across eastern Oregon, far western Idaho, the Idaho Panhandle and northwestern Montana, and the National Weather Service issued a Particularly Dangerous Situation red flag warning for much of central and eastern Washington, reported as the first ever for the state. NIFC’s 31 July report has the country at National Preparedness Level 5 with 87 large fires, and 44,004 fires and more than 4.8 million acres burned this year against a 10-year average of 3.63 million; Oregon has 30 large fires across 1,679,300 acres, Washington 11 across 208,517 acres, and the lightning-caused Rowe Creek Complex near Fossil, Oregon has passed 304,000 acres. Elsewhere WPC carries isolated to scattered severe storms and heavy rain from the Upper Midwest through the Mississippi Valley and Southern High Plains, shifting into the eastern quarter of the country on Sunday, while Four Corners monsoon coverage shrinks under dry northeast flow. In New Jersey the search ended: the body of the missing 10-year-old girl was recovered from the Passaic River on Friday evening, seen from an apartment window near the Market Street Bridge. In Colorado containment converged: Aspen Acres 67% (101,961 acres, 593 personnel), Gold Mountain 67% (39,506 acres, 430 personnel), Willow 67% (7,196 acres, 186 personnel), Elk 49% (2,319 acres, 103 personnel) and Ferris 97% (64,881 acres), with a Flash Flood Warning over part of the Aspen Acres fire area on Friday and a warming, drying trend from 1 August that could lift fire activity again.
• July 31 (the Southwest peaks, the West chases records): NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center’s Friday pre-dawn discussion, valid 31 July to 2 August, has 110 to 120°F (43 to 49°C) across parts of the Southwest under widespread major to extreme HeatRisk, with the ridge expanding north on Saturday into the Intermountain West and northern High Plains. About 40 million people are under heat alerts and dozens of daily records are in play across at least 12 western states: Death Valley is forecast at 126°F (52°C), the hottest reading of this heat wave, Billings, Montana at 106°F (41°C) on Saturday would break its August record, Salt Lake City is forecast at the same number, and Phoenix, Tucson and Las Vegas all run well above 110°F (43°C). By 4 August roughly 10% of the continental U.S. is expected to have recorded its hottest day of 2026, and Maricopa County, Arizona has now confirmed 40 heat-related deaths this year. Away from the ridge, WPC keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from the Upper Midwest into the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys and a Slight Risk of severe storms over the Mississippi Valley and Ozarks, while monsoon storms over the Four Corners bring isolated flash flooding. In New Jersey the body of a 10-year-old boy who drowned in the flooded Passaic River on Wednesday was recovered late that night, after he pushed his 11-year-old sister to safety; a 10-year-old girl is still missing, with boat searches resuming Friday morning near Rutherford. In Colorado containment kept climbing: Aspen Acres 67% (101,921 acres, 625 personnel), Gold Mountain 64% (39,506 acres, 543 personnel), Willow 66% (7,196 acres, 196 personnel), Elk 49% (2,317 acres, 94 personnel) and Ferris at 97% (64,881 acres), with burn-scar flash flooding and debris flows now the main hazard.
• July 30 (the West reloads for real, the Northeast counts the damage): NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center’s Thursday pre-dawn discussion, valid 30 July to 1 August, keeps widespread major with isolated extreme heat risk across the southern U.S., with highs in the mid to upper 90s°F (35 to 37°C), into the low 100s°F (38°C) over the southern Plains and heat indices of 105 to 115°F (41 to 46°C), then expands the dangerous heat into the Southwest, Intermountain West and northern High Plains by the weekend. The National Weather Service in Las Vegas put Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories across the Mojave Desert and Great Basin from Thursday through Sunday, warning that daily and monthly temperature records will be challenged; Fox Weather has Las Vegas at or above 110°F (43°C) for the next week, a sixth straight day over that mark against the record streak of 11 set in July 2024, with Phoenix, Death Valley and southern California at 118 to 120°F (48 to 49°C), triple digits across Utah and the Great Basin this weekend, Montana above 100°F, and smoke from Pacific Northwest wildfires layered on top. WPC’s extended discussion, issued 30 July and valid 2 to 6 August, has the heat wave continuing from California to the Intermountain West into next week, with widespread 110s°F at the lower desert elevations, record-high overnight lows likely and Texas lows struggling to fall below 80°F (27°C); the ridge only starts to break down Sunday into Monday as a strong closed upper low crosses southwestern Canada and a trailing cold front cools the Pacific Northwest and northern Plains, while it stays entrenched over California, Utah and Arizona and Gulf Coast heat indices top 100°F (38°C) most days. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center week 2 outlook, issued 29 July and valid 6 to 12 August, carries a high risk of extreme heat for portions of California, the Great Basin and adjacent Rockies on 6 to 7 August, a moderate risk across the High Plains, Southwest and Rockies through 8 August, and a slight risk over most of the western two thirds of the country and the Southeast from 6 to 12 August. The storm side of the pattern turned destructive: two days of training thunderstorms left Albany International Airport with 6.7 inches (170 mm) of rain in 48 hours, its biggest two-day total on record, and Schodack, New York with close to 12 inches (300 mm), more than twice the area’s average for all of July. More than 10 million people were under flood alerts, forecasters logged 84 flash-flood reports across the eastern U.S. on Tuesday and Wednesday, Amtrak suspended its Hudson Line between New York City and Albany, more than 200 flights were cancelled at the New York City airports, Columbia, Montgomery and Rensselaer counties and towns from Cairo to Schodack declared states of emergency, the Red Cross opened four shelters, and crews pulled residents out by boat in Albany, Coeymans and Paterson, New Jersey. A 32-year-old man was killed by lightning in Monroe Township, New Jersey around 3 p.m. Tuesday. In Colorado the monsoon that is calming the fires became its own emergency: shortly after 5:30 p.m. on 28 July the National Weather Service declared a Flash Flood Emergency over the Aspen Acres burn scar, tagged as a particularly dangerous situation, after 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) of rain fell on ground that can no longer absorb it, sending debris flows down North Creek, North Creek Cutoff and South Pine Drive near Beulah, closing Highway 78 at Beulah Hill and Highway 165 at Old San Isabel Road and McKenzie Junction, and destroying at least five homes along with bridges, power poles and propane tanks; one home was seen floating down a creek, a second flash flood emergency covered the Gold Mountain burn area, and no injuries were reported. Containment kept building underneath it: Aspen Acres holds at 66% (101,921 acres) with personnel down again to 699, Gold Mountain climbed to 62% contained (39,506 acres, 621 personnel), Willow to 64% (7,196 acres, 239 personnel, with 300 to 500 spot fires still burning in the Mount Massive Wilderness and command passed to a Wyoming Type 3 team on 28 July), the remote Elk fire holds at 37% (2,317 acres, 91 personnel, containment projected for 8 September) and Ferris at 97% (64,881 acres). Pueblo County puts its structure losses from the fire itself at 241 destroyed (208 in Beulah, 28 in Rye, two in Colorado City and three in unincorporated areas), with 85 more in Custer County.
• July 29 (the South bakes, the West reloads, the Northeast floods): NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center’s Wednesday pre-dawn discussion, valid through Friday, has widespread major to extreme heat risk across the southern U.S., expanding into the Southwest and Intermountain West by Thursday, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s°F (35 to 37°C), localized low 100s°F (38°C) across Texas and Oklahoma and heat indices of 105 to 115°F (41 to 46°C). The storm side of the pattern sharpened: WPC placed the Northeast under a Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4) of excessive rainfall on Wednesday, with high rainfall totals, high rain rates and urban flash flooding, alongside a marginal risk across the Southeast and Gulf Coast through Thursday, a slight risk over Colorado from afternoon and evening monsoonal thunderstorms, and a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over the northern High Plains and Upper Midwest. The longer view is hotter, not cooler: WPC’s extended discussion, issued 28 July and valid 31 July to 4 August, has a strong upper high with heights near 600 dm dominating the western U.S., the ridge parked over the southwestern quadrant of the country, sending Desert Southwest highs well into the 110s°F and approaching 120°F (49°C), California’s Central Valley and southern Idaho near 100°F (38°C), Montana into the western Dakotas to or past 100°F, and Gulf Coast heat indices to 100 to 110°F (38 to 43°C), with the first real break a strong cold front crossing the Pacific Northwest to reach the northern Plains early next week. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center week 2 outlook, issued 28 July and valid 5 to 11 August, moves the high risk of extreme heat onto portions of California, the Southwest, the Great Basin and adjacent Rockies for 5 to 6 August, with a moderate risk from the High Plains and Rockies across the Great Basin, Northern Intermountain, Pacific Northwest and California from 5 to 8 August. In Colorado the monsoon is winning: Gold Mountain climbed from 50% to 59% contained (39,506 acres, 621 personnel), the remote Elk fire tripled its containment to 37% (2,317 acres), and Aspen Acres holds at 66% (101,921 acres) with personnel drawn down from 821 to 706 and fire behavior described as minimal, creeping, flanking and backing after recent rain and cooler temperatures; Willow stands at 62% (7,196 acres), Ferris at 97% (64,881 acres), Fishhook at 97% (309 acres) and PL Gulch at 95% (1,580 acres).
• July 28 (the dome pulls south, storms and monsoon move in): The peak over the northern Plains has passed. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center’s Tuesday pre-dawn discussion, valid through Thursday, centers the dangerous heat on Texas, Oklahoma and the Lower Mississippi Valley with widespread major to extreme heat risk, afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s°F (35 to 37°C), localized readings above 100°F (38°C) and heat indices approaching or exceeding 105 to 115°F (41 to 46°C), with warm overnight lows giving little relief. Thunderstorms and flash flooding take over the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, Southeast and Southwest through Thursday, driven by fronts, monsoonal moisture and slow-moving storm complexes. The weekend’s records are now confirmed: Denver reached 103°F (39°C) on Sunday, breaking the 26 July record of 100°F from 1910 and its hottest day in more than eight years, then recorded its warmest night in 145 years early Monday (76°F / 24°C at Denver International Airport, 77°F / 25°C at the Central Park station); Saturday’s 101°F broke the 25 July record of 99°F from 1963, with Boulder at 100°F and Fort Collins at 101°F. On 26 July the Department of Energy issued an emergency order to the Southwest Power Pool covering 17 states, valid to 11:59 p.m. CDT on 3 August, letting it dispatch specified generation units and call on backup generation as a last resort. A Washington Post analysis published 26 July counted at least 70 heat-dome deaths in July, well above the 44 in confirmed state tallies. In Colorado, Aspen Acres reached 66% containment (101,921 acres, 821 personnel) as command passed to Rocky Mountain Team 3 with an 80% chance of storms over the fire, Gold Mountain jumped to 50% (39,506 acres, 633 personnel), Willow reached 62% (7,196 acres), the Elk fire posted its first containment at 11% (2,317 acres) and Ferris held at 97% (64,881 acres). Nathan Matthews, 43, died on 24 July of burn injuries from the 27 June Snyder fire burnover, the fourth firefighter killed in that one incident. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center week 2 outlook, issued 27 July and valid 4 to 10 August, keeps a high risk of extreme heat over portions of the Great Basin from 4 to 6 August.
• July 27 (peak day, and the footprint starts to shrink): NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center’s Monday pre-dawn discussion keeps dangerous heat from the Plains into portions of the Mississippi Valley and Southeast, with major to extreme heat risk across the central and southern Plains, Mississippi Valley and Southeast today, highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s°F (36 to 39°C), isolated 115 to 120°F (46 to 49°C) in the Desert Southwest and heat index values above 105 to 115°F (41 to 46°C). On Tuesday that major-to-extreme area contracts to the southern Rockies, southern Plains and Southeast, the first clear shrinkage of the dome since it rebuilt. More than 100 million people were under heat alerts on Sunday, up from roughly 80 million on Saturday: Denver actually reached 103°F (39°C) on Sunday, breaking the 26 July record of 100°F set in 1910 and its hottest day in more than eight years, then recorded its warmest night in 145 years early Monday (76°F / 24°C at Denver International Airport, 77°F / 25°C at the Central Park station). Rapid City was forecast to 105°F (41°C) against a 103°F record from 1987, Las Vegas ran near 112°F (44°C) and Phoenix 109°F (43°C), while Palm Springs is forecast to approach 120°F (49°C) by next weekend. Monday’s feels-like values reach 110°F (43°C) in Omaha, 107°F (42°C) in Kansas City and Dallas and 104°F (40°C) in Oklahoma City, with Extreme Heat Warnings covering St. Louis, Kansas City, Memphis, Minneapolis, Omaha, Phoenix and Las Vegas. Relief is starting to show: a cold front should cool the Upper Midwest early in the week, the Southwest monsoon is active across the Four Corners, Rockies and central Plains with flash flooding a concern over burn scars, and there is an Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) severe thunderstorm risk from the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. In Colorado the fires kept receding: Aspen Acres reached 101,921 acres and 64% containment with 881 personnel, Gold Mountain jumped to 37% contained (38,063 acres, 638 personnel, full containment projected for 31 October), Willow rose to 59% (7,196 acres), Ferris holds at 97% (64,881 acres) and the remote Elk fire stands at 2,317 acres at 0% containment.
• July 26 (the dome sits at full strength, first monsoon cracks): NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center’s Sunday morning discussion keeps widespread major (Level 3 of 4) heat risk with isolated extreme (Level 4 of 4) risk across the Plains, Mississippi Valley and Midwest, parts of the Rockies and portions of the southern U.S. through Monday, with afternoon highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s°F (36 to 39°C), isolated 115 to 120°F (46 to 49°C) in the Desert Southwest and heat index values above 105 to 115°F (41 to 46°C). On Saturday roughly 80 million people were under heat advisories as highs topped 100°F (38°C) from Dallas to North Dakota: western Nebraska was forecast to 108°F (42°C), the Las Vegas valley ran near 114°F (46°C), and Montana and Wyoming climbed past 100°F, 10 to 15°F above normal, while the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast and most of the Pacific Northwest stayed out of it. Forecasters call the dome effectively stationary through the week, with the worst heat sliding toward Texas and the Gulf Coast by Wednesday and only a possible break toward next weekend. The first cracks are showing: monsoonal moisture is spreading into the Southwest and central Plains, and severe thunderstorms and flash flooding are in play from the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and Northeast. In Colorado, Aspen Acres edged up to 101,879 acres while holding at 61% containment with 972 personnel assigned, and evening storms brought a chance of rain with minimal fire activity expected; Ferris stays 97% contained (64,881 acres), Gold Mountain 27% (38,052 acres), Willow 58% (7,196 acres) and the remote Elk fire 2,310 acres at 0% containment.
• July 25 (the dome rebuilds into the planet’s strongest): The eastern push is over and the ridge is reloading over the interior. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has widespread major (Level 3 of 4) heat risk across much of the central and southern U.S. this weekend, with isolated extreme (Level 4 of 4) risk from the Rockies and Plains into the Upper Midwest, Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast, highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s°F (36 to 39°C), 115 to 120°F (46 to 49°C) in the Desert Southwest and heat index values of 105 to 115°F (41 to 46°C). Forecasters expect the dome to strengthen today into the strongest anywhere on the planet, its core running from the Dakotas to Texas, with record-challenging temperatures possible in more than 30 states. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center now carries a high risk of excessive heat for the Southwest, Great Basin and California on 1 to 2 August and a slight risk across most of the western two thirds of the country through 7 August. In Colorado, containment kept building: Aspen Acres stands at 101,738 acres and 61% contained with 945 personnel assigned, Ferris reached 97% contained (64,881 acres), Willow rose to 58% (7,196 acres), Gold Mountain to 27% (38,052 acres), and the remote Elk fire is 2,310 acres at 0% containment, fought with an indirect strategy through beetle-killed timber.
• July 24 (the West reloads, Colorado containment climbs): The heat crested over the mid-Mississippi Valley and Midwest, but the bigger story moved west: forecasters flagged the ridge strengthening on Saturday into the most powerful heat dome on the planet, peaking over the central U.S. early next week, with predicted highs through Wednesday of 121°F (49°C) in California, 120°F (49°C) in Arizona, 115°F (46°C) in Nevada, 113°F (45°C) in Kansas and 112°F (44°C) in Oklahoma and Texas, and records in play across 32 states. The National Weather Service warned of rapid-onset drought across parts of the Plains and Midwest, including the Corn Belt, and AccuWeather put Kansas City, St. Louis and Memphis near or above 100°F (38°C) for several days early next week, their hottest stretch of the season, with RealFeel values above 110°F (43°C) and only modest relief once thunderstorms arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday. In Colorado, Ferris jumped to 97% contained (64,881 acres), Gold Mountain rose to 27% (38,052 acres), Willow to 55% (7,196 acres) with 535 responders and Fishhook to 94% (309 acres) after Thursday’s rain, while the remote Elk fire grew to 2,310 acres at 0% containment. Aspen Acres held at 101,546 acres and 61% contained, a small new start on its perimeter (the Salt fire) was caught the same day by helitack crews, and areas near San Isabel reopened Friday. The Hartman Hill Fire near Kremmling reached 100% containment at 26 acres after Wednesday’s operational period, with all pre-evacuations lifted; the Grand County Sheriff’s Office traced its cause to a lightning strike.
• July 23 (heat shifts east, Colorado fires keep receding): The dome began sliding east. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center and the National Weather Service placed more than 35 million Americans at major (Level 3 of 4) to extreme (Level 4 of 4) heat risk, centered along the Mississippi River Valley, with roughly 100 million under Extreme Heat Warnings, Watches or Advisories nationwide. Forecasters expect that major-to-extreme population to roughly double on 24 July and approach 90 million by 25 July as alerts spread across most of the eastern half of the country, with heat index values reaching 110 to 115°F (43 to 46°C) in the hardest-hit areas. In Colorado, containment kept climbing: Ferris reached 94% contained (64,881 acres), Gold Mountain rose to 24% (38,044 acres), Willow to 48% (7,196 acres) and Fishhook to 58% (309 acres) with all pre-evacuation warnings lifted, while the Hartman Hill Fire hit 60% containment (26 acres) with all pre-evacuations lifted. Aspen Acres held at 101,546 acres and 61% contained as crews planned a prescribed burn along its southwestern flank to protect Rye.
• July 22 (heat peaks across the Midwest and Great Lakes, Aspen Acres eases): The dome hit its midweek stride, covering a broad swath from Minneapolis to New Orleans and Kansas City to Cleveland. Almost 100 million Americans were under Extreme Heat Warnings, Watches or Advisories, with the National Weather Service placing tens of millions in its Level 3 (major) to Level 4 (extreme) heat-risk tiers from the Deep South through the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic. Chicago’s heat index is forecast near 104°F (40°C) Thursday and 106°F (41°C) Friday, Kansas City stays under an Extreme Heat Warning through 24 July, and overnight lows across the region struggle to fall below 80°F (27°C). In Colorado, the Aspen Acres fire grew to 101,546 acres while staying 61% contained, now the seventh-largest wildfire in state history with a private aerial survey estimating about 780 structures lost; mandatory evacuations were lifted in Pueblo County zones FS-3, FS-4, P2 and P3, with western zones C3 and C4 dropping to pre-evacuation status Wednesday. Ferris held at 89% contained, Willow at 41% and Gold Mountain at 13%.
• July 21 (heat re-intensifies, Colorado fires recede): A fresh surge is building and spreading east. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has the heat dome strengthening over the Mississippi and Ohio valleys, with almost 85 million people from South Dakota to Texas and North Carolina to Florida under Extreme Heat Warnings, Watches or Advisories. Highs in parts of Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana peak near or above 100°F (38°C) and the heat index tops 100°F across much of the South, Midwest and Great Lakes, with Kansas City forecast at a heat index of 107°F (42°C) today and 106°F Wednesday under an Extreme Heat Warning through 24 July. The 90-degree heat expands over the Midwest and Great Lakes by midweek, with little rain to break it. In Colorado, containment kept climbing: Ferris reached 89% contained (64,881 acres), Willow rose to 41% (7,181 acres), Gold Mountain held at 13% (38,009 acres), and Aspen Acres stayed steady at 100,756 acres and 61% contained. The Hartman Hill Fire near Kremmling was remapped to 26 acres and reached 20% containment, and its Trough Road evacuation (mile posts 9 to 16) was eased to pre-evacuation status.
• July 20 (new fire ignites, Plains heat holds): A new blaze broke out Sunday evening in Grand County: the Hartman Hill Fire, near Kremmling, grew to roughly 30 to 100 acres by early estimates and triggered a mandatory evacuation order for Trough Road between mile posts 9 and 16. Colorado’s larger fires held steady overnight: Aspen Acres at 100,400 acres and 61% contained (a community meeting is set for Monday evening at Craver Middle School in Colorado City), Ferris at 83% contained, Gold Mountain at 13% contained and Willow at 37% contained. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center flags hazardous heat building from the northern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley, with heat index values of 110 to 115°F (43 to 46°C) today and Tuesday under widespread Heat Advisories, and the Climate Prediction Center now flags a renewed extreme-heat risk for the southern Plains and Southwest around 26 to 28 July.
• July 19 (Plains surge underway, Colorado fires turn a corner): The dome’s comeback arrives on schedule: NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center flags major heat risk from the northern Plains southeast into the lower Missouri and lower Mississippi valleys through 21 July, with highs from the mid-90s to the lower 100s°F (35 to 40°C), though the Upper Midwest edge is trending milder than the earlier RealFeel forecasts (Minneapolis: 91 to 93°F, easing to the low 80s by Tuesday as storms move through). In Colorado, a corner has been turned: Aspen Acres crossed 100,000 acres (100,224) while containment jumped from 48% to 61%, ranking it the seventh-largest wildfire in Colorado history; Ferris leapt to 83% contained (64,881 acres), Gold Mountain stands at 37,809 acres (13% contained), Willow at 7,103 acres (37% contained), and the remote Elk fire grew to 2,274 acres (0% contained). Around Aspen Acres, evacuation orders are easing: more than 1,300 animals sheltered at the Colorado State Fairgrounds are returning home, and a Recovery Assistance Center opens in Beulah on Monday 20 July. Monsoon moisture is spreading across the Southwest and Great Basin, the mechanism forecasters expect to eventually break the dome down.
• July 17 to 18 (East winds down, Plains reload): The Northeast’s second surge is ending as forecast, while heat advisories continue across Nebraska and the central Plains into Monday. In Colorado, firefighters gained real ground: the Aspen Acres fire held at 99,820 acres as containment jumped from 36% to 48%, though crews are still protecting Rye and San Isabel and the fire’s toll now stands at more than 850 structures destroyed, including at least 337 homes. Ferris reached 53% containment with no homes lost, Gold Mountain stands at 37,734 acres (13% contained) and Willow at 6,877 acres (36% contained). Two new high-country fires, Fishhook (347 acres, Routt County) and Elk (2,199 acres, north of Lake City), remain at 0% containment. AccuWeather expects the dome to surge back over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest from Sunday 19 July, with RealFeel temperatures of 105 to 115°F (41 to 46°C) early next week.
• July 12 to 16 (the dome rebuilds): After a brief weekend lull, the ridge restrengthened over the Great Basin and Northern Plains. On Sunday 12 July Billings, Montana reached 111°F (44°C) and Salt Lake City reached 109°F (43°C), all-time record highs for both cities. By 14 July more than 125 million Americans were under heat alerts as the heat pushed east: Fargo saw heat-index values near 105°F (41°C), Philadelphia and Trenton went under extreme heat warnings with indices up to 107°F (42°C) on Wednesday, and the Northeast entered a second multi-day stretch of 90-degree heat expected to last through Saturday 18 July. Smoke from more than 800 Canadian wildfires is worsening air quality across the upper Midwest and Northeast. In Colorado, the Aspen Acres fire has grown to 99,077 acres (36% contained), destroying more than 850 structures, including at least 337 homes, and still threatening the town of Rye; Ferris stands at 64,869 acres (43% contained), Gold Mountain at 37,259 acres (12% contained) and Willow at 6,539 acres (28% contained), with the state’s major fires totaling more than 200,000 acres combined.
• July 8: The dome intensifies over the Desert Southwest: Phoenix and Palm Springs push into the mid-110s°F (46°C) and Las Vegas sits at low-110s°F (44°C). Denver is only in the low-to-mid 90s today but is forecast to approach 100°F (38°C) by Saturday. Colorado’s wildfire complex now covers more than 200,000 acres combined across five active fires: Aspen Acres (50,187 acres, 180+ structures destroyed in Pueblo and Custer counties), Ferris merged with Doe Canyon (51,622 acres, 22% contained), Gold Mountain (29,287 acres, 2% contained, Ouray County), plus Willow (near Leadville, growing overnight) and Snyder. Officials confirm three firefighter deaths battling the complex, all from the 27 June Snyder fire burnover in Mesa County; a fourth crew member, Nathan Matthews, 43, would die of his burn injuries on 24 July. The North American Monsoon is beginning to feed moisture in from Mexico, but AccuWeather now expects the dome to reintensify across the Central Plains and Mountain West July 12 to 18 before a monsoonal surge finally breaks the pattern in the second half of July. The national heat-related death toll holds at at least 40.
• June 30 (Tuesday): The worst heat sat over the Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, where the National Weather Service placed Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio and Missouri at its highest heat-risk level. Chicago logged heat-index values near 110°F (43°C), Detroit flirted with 100°F (38°C) for the first time since 2012, and St. Louis stretched its run of 90-degree days past a week.
• July 1 (Wednesday): The heat built east into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia and New York climbed into the upper 90s, with heat index of 105 to 111°F (41 to 44°C) along the I-95 corridor.
• July 2 to 3 (Thursday to Friday, the record peak): Central Park reached 100°F (38°C) on Thursday, its first 100-degree day since 2012 and a tie with the daily record set in 1966. Overnight, LaGuardia recorded 94°F (34°C) at midnight, its hottest midnight reading on record. Friday hit 100°F (38°C) around New York again, while Washington DC crossed 100°F (38°C) and heat strained the power grid.
• July 4 (Saturday): Still dangerously hot in the East for the holiday. A violent line of thunderstorms swept from the Plains to the Northeast, producing 540+ damaging wind reports (peak 92 mph at Norman, OK) and widely disrupting Fourth of July fireworks.
• July 5 (Sunday): Extreme East heat broke. Highs from DC to Boston fell back to the 70s to low 90s (21 to 33°C).
• July 6 to 7 (event pivots west): The dome has moved onto the Southwest, Southern Plains and Colorado. Denver enters what forecasters are calling a "potentially historic" stretch, several days over 100°F (38°C), with 90s widespread across the Rockies and High Plains. Wildfires across northern Colorado produce hazy skies and elevated air-quality alerts.
• July 7 (human toll): The national heat-related death toll reaches at least 40. New Jersey health officials confirm 29 deaths, up seven from Sunday, mostly during the record East peak of 2-3 July. Additional confirmed deaths: 3 in New York, 4 in Philadelphia, 4 in Illinois. Officials caution that heat deaths are consistently undercounted at first and the final national tally will keep rising.
• Early-August outlook: The pattern has outlasted July, and the West still holds the core. The Weather Prediction Center’s discussion issued 4 p.m. EDT on 31 July, valid 1 to 3 August, has widespread major to extreme HeatRisk across the Southwest with 110 to 120°F (43 to 49°C) at the lower desert elevations, the 90s and 100s farther north and warm nights throughout. WPC’s extended discussion, issued 1 August and valid 4 to 8 August, keeps that major to extreme HeatRisk over much of the Southwest through much of next week, then expands it northeast into the Rockies and southeast across the Mid-South and Southeast. A cold front crossing the Northwest and northern Plains early in the week weakens the ridge briefly, then it re-intensifies midweek and pushes the excessive heat into the central High Plains. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, in its week 2 outlook issued 31 July and valid 8 to 14 August, carries a moderate risk (a 40 to 60% chance) of extreme heat on 8 to 9 August across parts of the West, the central and southern Plains, the middle and lower Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee valleys and the Southeast, and a slight risk over most of the country apart from the Great Lakes, Northeast and Appalachians for the full week. It also flags rapid-onset drought for the central and southern Plains and the middle and lower Mississippi Valley, where rainfall deficits already exceed 2 inches (50 mm), and a slight risk of heavy precipitation across the Desert Southwest all week as monsoonal moisture surges continue.

Where the heat will be most dangerous

The raw temperature is only part of the danger. The greatest risk comes from the combination of heat and humidity, measured as the heat index, which is forecast to approach 110°F (43°C) across the mid-South and Gulf Coast where dew points are highest. Just as dangerous are the warm nights: when overnight lows stay in the high 70s or low 80s°F (mid to high 20s°C), the body never gets a chance to cool down, which is when heat waves turn deadly. Forecasters warn of possible record-high minimum temperatures during this stretch.

As of 12 August the sharpest danger has left the desert Southwest for the middle of the country. NWS St Louis warns to 8 p.m. Thursday for heat index values up to 111°F (44°C), and Kansas City, Topeka and Wichita run to Friday at up to 110°F (43°C).

Southern Illinois has one of the longest. NWS Paducah warns Perry County to 7 p.m. Friday for peak heat index values up to 113°F (45°C), and expects triple-digit heat index values into and through the weekend.

The advisories fill in around them. 36 Heat Advisories are in force, from Nebraska, Iowa and the Texas Panhandle across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys to Alabama, the Carolinas and Florida.

The Southeast is next in line. NWS Charleston and NWS Jacksonville have issued Extreme Heat Watches for Thursday along the Georgia, South Carolina and northeast Florida coast, with heat index values up to 115°F (46°C) possible.

The nights barely help. Overnight lows only bottom out in the mid 70s to near 80°F (24 to 27°C), about 10 degrees above normal for the middle of August.

A front takes the edge off midweek. NWS St Louis expects more cloud and rain from Wednesday into Friday, which puts high temperatures and heat index values in real doubt across the region.

Then it comes back. The office sees a strong signal for the ridge to amplify over the Mississippi Valley again, returning widespread dangerous heat and humidity at the weekend.

The Southwest has flipped from heat to storms. NWS Las Vegas has the high pressure pushing east, HeatRisk dropping off by midweek and highs back to the 90s and lower 100s°F (32 to 39°C), with lows in the 70s and 80s°F (21 to 30°C).

Phoenix is done with it for now. NWS Phoenix has Wednesday onward at 3 to 6°F below normal with a large majority of the region at Minor HeatRisk, and no extreme heat in sight.

What replaces it is water. NWS Phoenix expects precipitable water of 1.7 to 2.0 inches and 40 to 60% storm chances from Wednesday into Thursday across south-central and southeast Arizona, with flash flooding the main threat.

Nevada is out of it entirely. The last Elko-area Extreme Heat Warning, over southeastern Elko County, expired at 11 p.m. Monday, and no Extreme Heat Warning is now in force anywhere west of eastern Kansas.

Western Nevada has come out of it. The NWS Reno Extreme Heat Warning for the Western Nevada Basin and Range ended at 8 a.m. Monday 10 August, after Heat Advisories over the Reno, Carson City and Minden area and the eastern Sierra counties.

Those advisories have gone too. The last of them covered Humboldt County, northern Elko County, the Ruby Mountains and White Pine County, with the Reno and Carson City area at 97 to 103°F (36 to 39°C).

The nights are the tell. Phoenix set a record warm low of 94°F (34°C) on 2 August, beating the 93°F (34°C) from 2025, and the Midwest is now where lows are stuck near 80°F (27°C).

WPC’s extended discussion issued 11 August, valid 14 to 18 August, calls it a protracted heatwave from the south-central to the southeastern United States under a persistent upper ridge.

The southern Plains reach the lower 100s°F (38 to 39°C) and widespread 90s°F (32 to 37°C) extend across the Southeast, at Major and locally Extreme HeatRisk. WPC expects widespread record overnight temperatures and little relief.

Heavy rainfall is the other half of the pattern. WPC has introduced a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for Friday over the corn belt, and another over the south-central Rockies where monsoon storms threaten burn scars, slot canyons and urban areas.

Monsoon storms add a second risk in the Southwest and parts of southern California, where repeated thunderstorms over burn scars and steep terrain can turn locally heavy rain into debris flows.

July already set the pace: it was Las Vegas’s third warmest July on record, averaging 96.6°F (35.9°C), topping out at 114°F (46°C) and producing only a trace of rain.

The Northwest: a fire-weather emergency behind the ridge

The same ridge drove a second emergency to the north. The Storm Prediction Center’s day 1 fire weather outlook, issued at 12:51 a.m. CDT on 12 August, again carries no Critical or Extremely Critical area, only Elevated risk.

Wednesday’s Elevated area covers the southern High Plains, the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and adjacent Kansas and Colorado, plus northeastern California, northwestern Nevada and the upper Snake River Plain, on winds around 15 mph.

SPC warns of transient critical conditions where those winds touch 20 mph, on fuels dried by days of single-digit humidity and poor overnight recovery. The southern High Plains are elevated too, on southerly winds up to 15 mph over curing fine fuels.

The dry-storm threat is back. SPC has extended isolated dry thunderstorm highlights into the northern Columbia Basin for Wednesday afternoon and evening, with relative humidity below 10% in southeastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico.

The fire ground is back under a warning. NWS Spokane issued a Red Flag Warning at 11:29 p.m. Tuesday, valid 11 a.m. to 11 p.m. Wednesday, the first since the wind event expired at the weekend.

It covers a wide arc. The warning runs across the east Cascades, the Okanogan and Methow valleys, the Waterville Plateau, northeast Washington, the Colville Reservation and the northern and central Idaho Panhandle, for lightning and outflow winds to 40 mph.

Midweek brings the first real change. NWS Spokane has showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday morning as a trough lifts across the Cascades and Columbia Basin, with lightning risk on the Cascade crest and gusty gap winds.

The rain would be light but welcome. NBM mean totals run from about one tenth to one half inch over the east Washington central and northern Cascades and the western Methow Valley, less over the Okanogan Highlands, Kettles and Selkirks.

The heat itself has wound down here. NWS Spokane puts Spokane at 86°F (30°C), Wenatchee at 89°F (32°C) and Lewiston at 91°F (33°C) on Tuesday, easing further by Thursday, and calls HeatRisk limited east of the Cascades this week.

The smoke outlasts the heat. Air Quality Alerts now run to noon Friday across the Spokane area, central Chelan County, the Okanogan Valley, the Waterville Plateau and the northern Idaho panhandle, and to 5 p.m. Wednesday around Lewiston and the Idaho Palouse.

That chance has firmed up. Wednesday night probabilities now reach 60% at Colville and 70% at Sandpoint, the best precipitation chance the region has had in weeks.

NWS Portland notes that wildfire smoke may hold those readings down by 1 to 3 degrees, which is a poor trade for the air underneath it.

West of the Cascades the smoke is clearing. Washington’s smoke forecasters expected the Puget Sound haze to break up overnight into Friday, with gradual improvement over the weekend for anywhere not directly downwind of a fire.

East of them it is not. NWS Spokane expects only modest improvement through the weekend and says the region’s ongoing fires will almost certainly keep smoke in place across the Pacific Northwest.

Saturday was the worst of it. The National Weather Service offices in Spokane and Pendleton issued a Particularly Dangerous Situation red flag warning from 2 p.m. to 8 p.m. PT for much of central and eastern Washington and northeastern Oregon, reported as the first ever for the region.

Counties under alert included Chelan, Douglas, Grant, Okanogan, Spokane and Walla Walla. Gusts reached 40 mph behind a dry cold front, and Avista shut off power to some circuits as a precaution.

The ground was already primed. NIFC’s 11 August report keeps the country at National Preparedness Level 5, with large uncontained fires up from 98 to 104 and 29,939 personnel committed after 142 new fires and 12 new large incidents.

Through 11 August, NIFC counts 46,305 fires and 6,428,813 acres burned in 2026, another 241 fires and 74,672 acres in a day. The comparison is the striking part: that is 126% of the ten-year average for fires and 156% for acres.

The Northwest carries most of it. NIFC’s 11 August large fire table lists 20 large fires across 539,016 acres in Washington and 20 across 1,827,471 acres in Oregon, after Mitre Rock and Little Goose reached full containment.

The Little Giant fire in the Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest, 30 miles northwest of Leavenworth, added another 5,527 acres to 116,956 acres and is still only 2% contained.

It has now destroyed 26 structures. The Entiat Fire Department’s initial assessment found two primary residences, three cabins and 21 outbuildings lost after fire activity surged in the upper Entiat Valley over the weekend.

The two ledgers have converged. NIFC now carries the same 116,956 acres, with 1,813 people assigned, an estimated containment date of 1 October and active fire behavior with group torching and long-range spotting.

Northeast of Spokane that cluster of newer fires keeps turning: Mitre Rock is now 100% contained at 4,518 acres, Bradeen Hill 4,419 acres and 74%, and Hudspeth 6,360 acres and 35%.

Both of last week’s newcomers kept growing: Ptarmigan in the Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest is at 23,467 acres and 8% contained, and Border 2 in North Cascades National Park at 11,618 acres, still uncontained.

Washington’s list keeps lengthening. Grand Park 2 in Mount Rainier National Park is at 312 acres and Prairie Mountain at 156 acres and 20% contained.

Two more joined on Monday: Palouse River, about 15 miles west of Colfax, at 637 acres and 40% contained, and Wells Road near Malden at 1,812 acres, uncontained.

The lightning-caused Rowe Creek Complex near Fossil, Oregon, which ignited on 15 and 16 July, has grown to 371,549 acres, and containment now stands at 84% after another 4,932 acres.

Oregon’s Coleman Creek fire in the state’s southeast has stopped growing, holding at 308,721 acres, and containment has climbed again to 90%.

The state’s largest is Big Grass, southwest of Jordan Valley, now at 553,972 acres after another 12,893-acre day, with containment slipping back to 35% as the perimeter grew.

The Grasshopper fire in the Mount Hood National Forest, three miles north of Sportsman Park, added 6,572 acres to 63,659 acres and containment is holding at 23%.

Oregon has its own problem fire now. NIFC puts Wrights Spring in the Fremont-Winema National Forest at 46,769 acres and still uncontained after a 12,799-acre day, with crowning, running and spotting, evacuations and road closures in place.

Oregon has now passed the record it did not want. Reporting on 3 August put the state at 2,014,481 acres across 60 large fires, above its 2024 season, with about two months of fire season still to run.

The comparison depends on which ledger you use. KGW puts the 2024 record at 1.93 million acres, while a 2,081,661-acre figure has also circulated, so treat the margin as narrow rather than settled.

Spokane: the Old Trails fire crosses the river into the city

The warning became a disaster within hours. The Old Trails fire broke out around noon on Saturday near Old Trails Road and Euclid Road west of Spokane, and gusts of 35 to 45 mph pushed it through Riverside State Park and across the Spokane River into the city.

By Monday the damage assessment had widened rather than firmed: more than 700 structures confirmed destroyed, with officials saying the final figure could reach 1,100 once about 400 remaining properties are evaluated.

Entire blocks are reduced to foundations in the Indian Trail and Five Mile Prairie neighborhoods. More than 10,000 structures are still listed as at risk.

Spokane Fire spokesperson Justin De Ruyter called even the preliminary figure of 600 low. Incident commander Tom Clemo said probably the largest and most destructive fire in Washington’s history happened on Saturday afternoon.

Level 3 go-now orders went out just before 3:30 p.m. for the area north of Francis Avenue and west of Division Street, then expanded through the evening. About 40,000 Avista customers lost power, and shelters opened at Spokane Falls Community College and the Spokane Convention Center.

Mayor Lisa Brown declared a city emergency and the Spokane County Commission a county emergency. Governor Bob Ferguson declared a statewide emergency, banned most outdoor and agricultural burning through 30 September and activated 110 National Guard members, the first fire-line call-up since 2021.

Major General Gent Welsh called the conditions the worst of his 38-year career. Old Trails, Autumn Lane and Fairview are managed as one incident, the Spokane Area Fires, which reached 10,546 acres and picked up its first containment on Wednesday.

NIFC’s 11 August report puts Autumn Lane at 5,764 acres, Old Trails at 3,176 and Fairview at 992, the three together totalling 9,932 acres after another slight remap.

Containment jumped again. NIFC’s 11 August report carries Fairview at 97%, Autumn Lane at 89% and Old Trails at 73%, with an estimated containment date of 15 August on all three.

Spokane-area reporting raised damaged or destroyed structures to 921 on Saturday: 694 on Old Trails, 168 on Autumn Lane and 59 on Fairview. The Autumn Lane figure is the one that moved.

Treat the federal snapshot as the conservative floor throughout. NIFC’s count is taken at 7:30 a.m. Mountain time and lags the field.

Resources keep building. 1,986 firefighters from 176 jurisdictions were working the complex on Saturday, up from more than 1,500 the day before.

Primary containment lines are in place on all three, and crews have moved to mop-up and knocking down pockets of heat near surviving structures. A 2.5-acre spot fire outside the Old Trails line was caught.

The clean-up phase has started behind them. Hazardous materials specialists began assessing homes inside the Level 3 evacuation zones on Saturday, the step that has to happen before most residents can be let back in.

That work paid off on Tuesday. At 2 p.m. the Spokane County Sheriff’s Office lifted all remaining evacuation levels, ten days after the Old Trails fire started and two days after the first mass return to north Spokane.

The devastated blocks are no longer sealed off either. Residents can return to standing homes and to rubble, though officials warn that hazardous substances are present in and around the burn and recommend protective equipment.

More than 67,000 people were displaced at the peak, and none are now. Fairchild Air Force Base opened an emergency family assistance center, and the Mann-Grandstaff VA Medical Center closed and transferred its patients.

The first downgrades came Monday, when the block between Magnesium Road, Francis Avenue, Division Street and Nevada Street dropped from Level 2 to Level 1. Spokane County Emergency Management lowered more zones on Tuesday.

Smoke is now the region-wide problem. Spokane’s air quality index hit 153, in the Unhealthy band, at 10:40 a.m. Thursday, and NWS Spokane warns it could reach Very Unhealthy.

Air Quality Alerts now run to noon Friday across 13 eastern Washington counties and the northern Idaho panhandle, and to 5 p.m. Wednesday in Latah, Nez Perce and Lewis counties. Smoke may still hold daytime temperatures down a few degrees.

FEMA authorized fire management assistance grants for all three fires, and on Tuesday President Trump approved a federal emergency declaration for Washington.

The declaration covers Spokane, Stevens, Ferry, Okanogan, Yakima and Chelan counties, plus the Spokane Tribe, the Confederated Tribes of the Colville Reservation and the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation.

The federal government will meet 75% of eligible response costs. No deaths have been confirmed.

That covers the response, not the losses. Governor Bob Ferguson says Washington will seek a Major Disaster Declaration, the only route to individual assistance for people who lost homes, once damage assessments with local governments and FEMA are complete.

He also signed an amended emergency proclamation. It widens the state disaster cash assistance programme for uninsured homeowners, waives fees to replace lost driver’s licences and vital records, drops the one-week wait for unemployment benefits and temporarily limits some evictions.

It now has a rough date. Ferguson said the request is due in mid-September, adding that “these major disaster declarations are not always granted, and so we are determined to make our case as compelling as possible”.

Statewide the picture is worse than any recent year: more than 1,000 fires have burned about 425,000 acres in Washington in 2026, more than the previous five years combined, with roughly 4,000 personnel on the lines and crews from more than a dozen states.

North and west of Spokane, the Kaiser Canyon fire in Okanogan County stands at 138,213 acres and 63% contained, and the Modrite fire on the Colville Reservation has grown to 57,154 acres, now at 61%.

The Sinlahekin fire near Tonasket is still moving, adding 6,304 acres to reach 147,715 acres, and NIFC again lists extreme fire behavior even as containment holds at 42%.

NIFC has downgraded its behavior to active, with single tree torching rather than crowning and long-range spotting, though residences and communication infrastructure are still threatened.

Level 3 orders now cover everything west of the Okanogan River north to Oroville, including Palmer Mountain, and the fire has run toward Rattlesnake Peak and South Pine Creek.

The Old Trails fire was set deliberately

On Monday afternoon the Spokane County Sheriff’s Office arrested Aaron F. Farinacci, 37, on suspicion of first-degree arson in the Old Trails fire, and he was arraigned in Spokane County Superior Court on Thursday.

The case widened at that hearing. Farinacci now faces five counts of first-degree arson, covering the Old Trails, Aubrey White, TJ Meenach, Equestrian and Indian Bluff fires, and Judge Jeremy Schmidt raised his bond from $1 million to $2 million.

Investigators say he told them he had set 25 fires since July 2025, four of which they have corroborated. His public defender asked for a competency evaluation, which the judge ordered, pausing proceedings.

A witness saw a man acting oddly near the ignition point on Saturday, then saw smoke rise from the same spot and called police. Farinacci was carrying waterproof matches and a butane lighter when he was picked up around 5 p.m.

Sheriff John Nowels said the evidence at the ignition point was consistent with a match or lighter, and that natural causes had been ruled out. Farinacci has no prior arson conviction but was convicted of manslaughter in Mesa, Arizona.

Court filings describe weeks of planning. Detective Michael Drapeau wrote that Farinacci researched the weather for high wind, low humidity and heat, settled on 1 August expecting gusts near 50 mph, and bought materials for a time-delay device made from notebook paper, matches, a cigarette and a rubber band.

Drapeau also wrote that Farinacci had looked up the work of a well-known serial arsonist, and told investigators that fire is powerful and beautiful, and that things which go through it experience a kind of rebirth.

Two heat domes, one week

It is unusual, and telling, to see two major heat domes parked over North America and Europe in the same week. As the U.S. bakes, Europe is gripped by its own heat dome, an “Omega block” that has shattered June records in Spain, France and the UK and turned deadly. Scientists are clear that climate change does not cause any single heat dome, but it loads the dice, making these ridges hotter, more frequent and more likely to arrive early in the season.

What is a heat dome?

A heat dome, also called a ridge of high pressure or a “death ridge,” is a large bulge of sinking warm air that can stretch up to 1,000 miles (1,600 km). The high pressure acts like a lid on a pot, trapping hot air near the surface and driving temperatures as much as 30°F (about 17°C) above normal. Because the dome stalls in place, the heat can linger for days or even weeks, drying out the land and raising the risk of wildfires and drought as it goes.

How to stay safe

Drink water before you feel thirsty, and avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day. Check on elderly neighbors, young children and anyone without air conditioning, and never leave children or pets in a parked car. Know the warning signs of heat exhaustion (heavy sweating, dizziness, nausea) and heat stroke (confusion, a body temperature above 103°F (39°C), hot dry skin), and seek shade, cool water and medical help quickly if they appear.

Related Stories

2026 U.S. Measles Outbreak Map by State: Cases, Hotspots, and Vaccination Gaps A state-by-state map of the 2026 U.S. measles outbreak: where cases are concentrated, cases per 100,000 people, MMR vaccination…

The U.S. Minimum Wage by State, 2026 There is no single American minimum wage. The federal floor has been frozen at $7.25 an hour since 2009, so for most workers the…

US Travel Advisory Level by Country: Mapping Every State Department Warning (2026) A live map of the US State Department’s travel advisory level for every country: 83 at Level 1, 82 at Level 2, 27 at Reconsider…

Mapped: 15 Biggest States in the US by Area (2026) The 15 biggest US states ranked by total area, from Alaska (665,384 mi²) to Florida. Complete with choropleth map, data table,…

Mapped: U.S. Travel and Visa Restrictions by Nationality (2026) The U.S. now restricts visas by nationality on three levels in 2026: a full entry ban on 19 countries, a partial ban on 20 more,…

Mapped: US UFO Sightings by State and the 15 Most Famous UAP Cases — After the Pentagon’s May 2026 File Release The Pentagon’s AARO office released a second batch of declassified UFO files on May 22, 2026 — cumulative archive over 200…